Hi Jeff... Greg Gentzler here. I work 5 days a week so I too like to, or must, handicap in advance. I'm time limited but I'd like to participate whenever possible.

I'd be willing to join in.

I'm in

Thanks Guys!
Who knows, this may be a very short discussion, but to kick things off I believe we need to answer two questions:
1. In terms of handicapping information, what do we give up by pre-betting races?
2. How will this impact how we use DET?

Here is my 2 cents on each:
1.What do we give up when betting early?

• No live Tote odds
• No insight into potentially changing track conditions (or bias).
• Inability to adjust for Late Scratches (pace picture impacts)
• No "In-race" or "In-session" situational information
• No wager level adjustments
• Anything else?

The impact from any of these will certainly vary based on your individual approach (ie; I typically play longer priced contenders so the live odds are less important to me)

2. How will this impact how we use DET?

• Can't use an approach that requires the Tote
• No "race-to-race" situational information available (This would preclude applying any risk approach as we discussed yesterday)

Depending on your approach with DET, pre-betting may require very little, if any adjustment... or, it may require a significant change in DET-related tactics.

As mentioned above, this may be a fairly short discussion, but I beleive it is worth having and I'm looking forward to it!

I think a missing ingredient is understanding how we perform in L1, L2, D1, and D2 races. This is “situational information” that most of us ignore, however each scenario may require different contender selection and betting strategies. Given the choice, I would prefer to understand how I perform in these different scenarios than to have the final odds before I placed my bets.

I'd like to suggest that instead of trying to figure out all of them, you figure out the most common one first.

By far that would be L1s which seem to comprise about 70% of all races.

L2s are next with about 20%.
L0s have about 8%.

When you look at D1s - remember they are a subset of L1s.
D2s are a subset of L2s.

I don't have numbers for the D's.

Definitions:
L1s are races with only 1 horse under 2/1 (using AI Line).
L2s are races with 2 horses under 2/1 (using AI Line).
L3s are races with 3 horses under 2/1 (using AI Line).
Note: These are very rare as they all have to be between 1.90 and 1.99 to 1.
Maybe 1%?


(Brian is working on some new cutting edge stuff that relates to the competitive level of the race using the B-W-Sq.)

Ping @ponyplayer