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Course: How to Be Competitive in the Age of the Whales
  • Dave Schwartz
    417
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    0. Introduction (16:43)
    What has Really made the game so difficult?
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    1. The Toteboard (10:17)
    It's actually worse than you probably think.
    But, from understanding comes answers.
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    2. Early Speed Points (5:20)
    Early Speed Points work differently than we've always thought.
    (And it greatly benefits price horses.)
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    3. Rank Bias Explained (18:51)
    You will look at rankings differently after this.
    (Especially on price horses.)
    (In a good way.)
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    4. Rank Bias and Other Factors (6:31)
    The impact on Speed Ratings and more Early Speed.
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    5. Morning Line as a Handicapping Factor (3:19)
    I know. Sounds laughable.
    But wait until you see the impact.
    (Spend the 3+ minutes.)
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    6. Morning Line & the Toteboard (6:49)
    The relationship between Morning Line and the Toteboard is not what we thought it was.
    This one will shock you.
    (Again, worth the 6+ minutes.)
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    7. Intro to Simpler Handicapping (8:08)
    What if handicapping could be simple again, like it was in the 1980s?
    (It also produces better results than you are probably getting today.)
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    8. Intro to the 5-Column Approach (10:59)
    Explains the concept of the 5 Columns.
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    9. The 5 Columns in Action (58:58)
    This is a long, race-by-race workout of the 5 Column approach.
    Try to remember that this is about YOUR 5 COLUMNS.
    If you reach the point when you're getting, and get tired of watching, just make sure that you watch the Ind03 race (52 minute mark).
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    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    417
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    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Chuck Jones
    31
    Boy does this come in handy in this day and age of CAWs
    Chuck Jones Options
  • BobbyB
    1
    In the Rank Bias videos are you saying that the factors only matter with 1st and 2nd favorites?

    If that's true how do you handicap?
    BobbyB Options
  • Chuck Jones
    31
    ↪BobbyB
    Have you watched the rest of the videos? That's where the juicy stuff is. It needs to be watched several times actually, it's full of meaty stuff
    Chuck Jones Options
  • BobbyB
    1
    ↪BobbyB Have you watched the rest of the videos? That's where the juicy stuff is. It needs to be watched several times actually, it's full of meaty stuff — Chuck Jones

    Yes, I watched them all. What I don't understand is that if the factors we've all been using for years only matter for low odds horses what do we handicap with?

    Did I miss that in the video?
    BobbyB Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    417
    Yes, I watched them all. What I don't understand is that if the factors we've all been using for years only matter for low odds horses what do we handicap with?

    Did I miss that in the video?     — BobbyB

    That's a really great question.
    The answer lies in what we call HANDICAPPING OBJECTS.

    It isn't that the factor ranks don't matter at all. They still do.

    They just don't matter as much as we think they do.

    The answer is MORE FACTORS generated together to produce a NEW FACTOR that CAN separate the other horses.
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Chuck Jones
    31
    As the Amwager players know, they have come out with and ELO score for about everything. Harness, TBred, Aussie, you name it. I remember when they first came out, they were saying this is kind of how the CAWs work, with these ELO scores. Any thoughts on this? I haven't paid much attention to them, but maybe I should, I have no idea.....
    Chuck Jones Options
  • Jim Pommier
    142
    ↪Chuck Jones
    I don't use AmWager. Curious how their ELO scores compare to PSR, cPwr, cRtg or BRIS Prime Power? Specifically ranking the horses in a race. For example, in a 6 horse field, do the horses rank 1 through 6 the same using AW ELO and PSR? Maybe check about 10 races to see any differences and how it performs.
    Jim Pommier Options
  • Chuck Jones
    31
    Supposedly it's a one number includes everything rating, as opposed to just a pure form rating. Jockey, Trainer, etc all included, so it's more than just a form rating (like Australia) https://www.amwager.com/elo/
    Chuck Jones Options
  • Jim Pommier
    142
    ↪Chuck Jones
    Other ratings like PSR also include other factors like statistical data, pace, running style, jockey, etc. It's not just a form rating. Since both are proprietary, we don't know the exact factors or how they're weighted. Higher is better. Guessing the ELO would work well for selecting contenders.
    Jim Pommier Options
  • Chuck Jones
    31
    The only reason I'm even curious is Amwager is very professional shop, lot of the big gun rebate players live there, so I doubt they would put out junk. But I've been fooled a million times before....so, ya know
    Chuck Jones Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    417
    The only reason I'm even curious is Amwager is very professional shop, lot of the big gun rebate players live there, so I doubt they would put out junk. But I've been fooled a million times before....so, ya know — Chuck Jones

    I don't think
    ↪Jim Pommier
    was saying they are junk.

    They're just ratings. And everybody at amWager has them.

    Guessing the ELO would work well for selecting contenders. — Jim Pommier
    Actually, it would logically push you to shorter priced horses.
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Chuck Jones
    31
    no, I wondered if they were junk, it was nothing Jim said, lol.
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  • Dave Schwartz
    417
    .
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • BobbyB
    1
    It isn't that the factor ranks don't matter at all. They still do.

    They just don't matter as much as we think they do.

    The answer is MORE FACTORS generated together to produce a NEW FACTOR that CAN separate the other horses.

    Alright, I follow what you’re saying, but I’m still not clear on how someone actually builds these new factors.

    I’ve been at this a long time, and I’ve never really seen anyone lay out what that process looks like.

    So if there’s a practical way a regular handicapper is supposed to approach it, I’d appreciate a little direction.

    Or must I have the DeTerminator to do this?
    BobbyB Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    417
    Alright, I follow what you’re saying, but I’m still not clear on how someone actually builds these new factors.

    I’ve been at this a long time, and I’ve never really seen anyone lay out what that process looks like.

    So if there’s a practical way a regular handicapper is supposed to approach it, I’d appreciate a little direction.

    Or must I have the DeTerminator to do this?     — BobbyB

    Hello, Bobby.

    Are you the Bobby B who was an HSH user about 2 decades ago?
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • BobbyB
    1
    No. Not me.

    The more I read and see the responses, the more I’m starting to think DeTerminator might be for me.

    I think what’s messing with my head a little is that I’ve always treated depth as part of the handicapping itself. Two horses most of the time, three if one really made sense to me, and more only when the race felt murky.

    What you’re describing sounds more like the race telling you how deep you have to go, whether you like it or not. That’s a different way of thinking about it than I’m used to.

    I’m not saying it’s wrong — just that it feels like I’m stepping into a framework I don’t quite understand yet, and I’m trying to figure out where my judgment still fits into that.
    BobbyB Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    417
    ↪BobbyB


    "Messing with my head." Great phrase. LOL

    Your reaction is completely normal, especially for expert players who have been close to winning for a long time. I often use the phrase "just one small tweak away from winning consistently."

    What’s really different here is that the depth isn’t coming from YOUR WORK anymore — it’s being driven by the shape of the race itself.

    Think of it like this...
    You probably do a lot of work on each race but now you have a REALLY SMART assistant to do all the PREP WORK.

    *** Picking contenders, separating them, narrowing them down, finding value... all of this is deep work - and the further you go into the race, the deeper it gets.
    *** The more decisions you have to make in a race, the greater the likelihood of a mistake that costs you the race.
    *** But now, ABBY hands you a clearly defined framework.
    *** Because of ABBY's proven consistency you can have confidence and clarity on precisely what you need to do next.

    The framework ABBY hands you is so strong that it could almost be used as a black box. You could bet every contender it gives you in every race and lose roughly five cents on the dollar. I'm not suggesting you do that — it’s simply a way to show how solid the starting point is when the typical player is losing about 23 cents per wagered dollar.
    ________________________________
    Just to be clear...
    If you took the specific horses that are in the 88s, made them your contenders, and picked 2 or 3 to bet, you'd have a great shot at being more than even - especially if you stop trying to bet into the tote board.
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • ponyplayer
    196
    One thing to remember is that we handicap the low odds differently than the
    high odds horses. It is a 2-stage process. Kind of ends up like a Chinese
    Restaurant menu - 1 from column A and 1 from column B (maybe 2 from column
    B in a Chaos 5 race).

    Low odds horse have to prove they can win - no vulnerabilities Higher odds
    horses need to be capable of winning by being strong in 1 or 2 categories
    but recognized/forgiven for their weaknesses..
    ponyplayer Options
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