HQ COURSES STORE PRICING ABOUT
  • Dave Schwartz
    417
    Topic: DET Does Pace

    Pace Handicapping Without...
    1. Picking Contenders
    2. Picking Pacelines
    3. Keeping a Model

    ABBY does it all.
    But still NOT a black box.
    Your knowledge still matters!


    WATCH THE VIDEO
  • Ira Yorn
    18
    Dave
    I have a question on the video pace module on the left hand side in green you have pace E pace LP and Pace SR on mine there are 8 buttons with Mdl numbered 1to 8 what does this mean and how do I change it back to the pace ones
  • Jeff Capper
    27
    I've just watched the video, and it's obvious I will need to watch it at least one more time. Lots to unpack here. My questions for now:

    1. What does pc Method 71 do differently from the important buttons that deT2 introduced? I've been relying on abPace/BH and BR2/pcrH, abRx, abRy. I've built a system that looks at all of these and gives me very good answers. I'll be re-playing recent races that I've played live to see if I can discern the differences. But any context will be interesting to know.

    2. I really like this new Pace Model's ability to weight each individual race. I'm now comparing these weights against the the red and green pace designation from the "front" of the AI Assistant panel. Sometimes they are consistent- meaning that the highest weighted pace button from the new Pace Model matches the green Abby Pace designation. But sometimes they don't align. Why is that?

    My initial observation of where I hope this all goes- my existing deT process is pretty darned good and I'm super-pleased with what it's been doing. But the final piece of the puzzle that I've been searching for is an adjudication of the low odds horses. It looks like this new Pace Model might be that final piece. So I envision this as a final step to ENHANCE but not REPLACE my existing process.
  • Dave Schwartz
    417


    1. What does pc Method 71 do differently from the important buttons that deT2 introduced? I've been relying on abPace/BH and BR2/pcrH, abRx, abRy. I've built a system that looks at all of these and gives me very good answers. I'll be re-playing recent races that I've played live to see if I can discern the differences. But any context will be interesting to know.

    It uses the Model weights rather than the standard weights.
    ______________________________
    2. I really like this new Pace Model's ability to weight each individual race. I'm now comparing these weights against the the red and green pace designation from the "front" of the AI Assistant panel. Sometimes they are consistent- meaning that the highest weighted pace button from the new Pace Model matches the green Abby Pace designation. But sometimes they don't align. Why is that?Jeff Capper

    Because it is not simply counting the ES points in the race.
    Instead, it is using an AI-base algorithm.
  • Dave Schwartz
    417
    I have a question on the video pace module on the left hand side in green you have pace E pace LP and Pace SR on mine there are 8 buttons with Mdl numbered 1to 8 what does this mean and how do I change it back to the pace onesIra Yorn

    Those are your own personal weights.


    The How-to is really quite easy.
    It's on the video.
    Just look for the section when I'm editing the buttons.

    But meanwhile...
    1. You create a name.
    2. Give it a button number.
    3. Fill in the weights.
    4. Hit Save.

    Ping @Jeff Capper
    Maybe when you're watching the video again, you could notice when the button discussion takes place and post it here for Ira.
  • Jeff Capper
    27
    Yes I'm watching an encore of the video on Sunday morning and will post the time that discussion occurs. I do recall it being from the first half of the video.
  • Ira Yorn
    18
    thanks Jeff I'll look for it
  • Dave Schwartz
    417
    My initial observation of where I hope this all goes- my existing deT process is pretty darned good and I'm super-pleased with what it's been doing. But the final piece of the puzzle that I've been searching for is an adjudication of the low odds horses. It looks like this new Pace Model might be that final piece. So I envision this as a final step to ENHANCE but not REPLACE my existing process.Jeff Capper

    That's a reasonable expectation.
  • Jeff Capper
    27
    the primary discussion on the mechanics of the buttons starts at the 11-minute mark and Dave illustrates an example that sets up his Pace-E button. At 15:30 he does the same for Late and at 17-minutes he does SR. In each case he's using a Fibonacci to illustrate. The takeaway here is that we'll need to experiment with these settings to find what works best for our individual style of play. I should point that that my eight green buttons are labelled out of the box as Mdl-1, Mdl-2, Mdl-3 etc.

    Separately, at the 25-minute mark Dave begins an important discussion about the importance of the 62 and 88 buttons. I had been paying attention to these early on and had identified that races 88.6 and above were too chaotic for my handicapping, but outside of that I had stopped looking at them. Dave's discussion at this point of the video on how these numbers relate to this pace approach is worthy of highlighting.
  • Ira Yorn
    18
    Thanks Jeff
    Really appreciate it
  • Jeff Capper
    27
    I'm re-running some past races that I played live against this new Pace Model/method 71. Geez Louise. The frequency in which the exacta is coming from the best three or best four pc ranks is staggering. Too early for any meaningful stats to share, so I'm not ready to call this a method in and of itself. But the possibilities are pretty exciting- let's say I've landed on my win and place contenders in the form of an ABC/ABCDE exacta ticket. That's $24. But now let's say I have the confidence to lay an AB/ABC ticket for $8 on top of it. For a 32 dollar investment it appears I'll often have a strong likelihood of cashing a 2x exacta hit. I see this as a way to improve value while still maintaining hit rate (an ongoing conundrum for me as an exacta player). I'll keep studying, and in the process I'll keep an eye on how those 62 and 88 numbers factor into how deep these tickets need to be.

    For now ,I encourage anyone who keeps some sort of tracking of past races- whether it be a formal model, a simple spreadsheet or just your notes- to go back and see how this pc button with method 71 will impact your ability to leverage stronger tickets.
  • Jim Pommier
    134
    Curious if you're capturing "Cap" the weights that are there or if you've played around using your own weights?
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