Yes, that's always a concern. LOL

Hello Dave
1. Does a program like this help a tournament player?
2. I saw a recent video about reports and it reminded me of hsh program. I didn’t fair well with hsh due to its complexity (basic computer experience here) is the determinator more straightforward or does the user need to generate their own factors and weights, etc. ? Is it out of the box ready? Thxs! — john

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Yes, in fact that is covered a bit in a couple of the videos.
Three things of special interest
1. CHAOS RACE LEVEL (0-5)
2. BALOs (Bet Against Low-Odds horses)
3. AI BEST HORSE
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1. CHAOS RACE LEVEL 4s & 5s indicate that one should look for big payoffs.
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2. BALOs indicate that there is a strong favorite who should under-perform.
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3. AI Best Horse (Odds Ranges)
This tells which horses fit the race by odds ranges.
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The most powerful race for *tournament longshots would be a CHAOS RACE with a BALO.
What's a tournament Longshot? It's a longshot that you can actually handicap to the top.

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In the graphic below, I've taken the projected longshots in the race and indicated how they rank in their appropriate odds categories. Typically you are looking for horses with 1s and 2s.



What the AI trained on could best be described as:
"If a horse in the 17/1 up category won the race, what factors would likely point to the winner?"

Obviously, we are not getting factors like "best speed rating ever" because such horses don't typically pay $36 and up.

Instead, it uses some pretty esoteric stuff. Things like:

• Time-Decayed Stretch Gain.
• Average Positions Gained from 2nd call to the wire.
• Regression Speed Ratings - Low (The worst speed rating the horse could be expected to run.

Also interesting to note that those 1s on the screen indicated that they were ranked #1 or #2 in the field, not just among the longshots. IOW, they were better than the favorites.

I guess I answered a question that wasn't asked.
Sorry.

I really like Jim Cramer's work on this stuff.
Found it quite revolutionary.

My adaptation of it is to ask a question:
"When did the horse first challenge for the lead?"
"Challenge" is defined as being within one length.

What we call these really doesn't matter.

Hope this helps.

Check out the video list for the Zoom Link

I'll give everyone at least an hour warning.
Thinking like 2:30 or so.

Of course!
I’ll post it on DET videos

Not so fast...
Had a thought.
I'm actually working on making new reports TODAY.
How about I go LIVE later today and record impromptu while I create?

I'll post the time ASAP.

Thank you. In the other thread, Jim Parker talked about HSH Objects (now will be Reports). Could you also please provide a sample HSH Object with say 1, 2, 3 factors. Nothing fancy. This will help me visualize what those are all about as well. — Jim Pommier

If I work on this now instead of during the onboarding, I wind up doing it twice.

Seems like a better use of resources if I stay the development course.

I'm trying to put something together around the "What you need is:". You said you came up with about 40 Handicapping Flips. It's sounds like we can then pick two that we like that will fit with our core method of handicapping without any overlap? Can you please provide an example of 1 or 2 Handicapping Flips so I'm on the right track (visualize). — Jim Pommier

Jim, this is a wonderful question.
So excellent that it demands a quick video.
Let me see if I can't record one tomorrow.

If you can improve on HMI, I bow to your greatness! — ponyplayer

Oh, how you play to my vanity! LOL
(Apparently, I am still sooo shallow. LOL)

I think that HIM is the mathematical best ever - and perhaps the best possible solution for a positive expectancy player.

However, I use something else. I'll be sure to teach it to everyone that wants to learn.

Last, as it pertains to 3 below and the 4 Pace Objects. Why use Pace to test, and why not Speed Figures? — Jim Pommier

1. Speed Ratings simply are not even remotely close to being as good as the AI Pace Objects.
2. NHT - NOBODY HAS THIS - (but everybody has speed ratings).

See if I have this right. The deT is using AI to start-- determine the Best Horse(s). Then to determine if the Best Horse is a BALO or not we're using AI's four (4) Green Pace Objects. So at this stage in the process deT is using "pace" versus other factors? So is the deT different than what HSH was doing above? — Jim Pommier

That answer was meant for Saratoga, who does not have anything within several magnitudes of DET to answer his questions.

Please forgive if it sounds like I am nitpicking.
You might have the meaning right, but I need to be sure, lest you or others are confused by my lack of a straightforward answer.

1) The BALO flip tells you when there is a... well, a BALO or not.
2) The AI Best Horse flip gives you HIT RATES and/or VALUE.
3) However, the AI Best Horse also serves a distinct purpose within the BALO, but only as it pertains to the BALO candidates.

The BALO PROCESS includes:
1. AI LINE Magnitude=1 to select the BALO Candidates.
2. Then, the AI BH Mag is used to test the BALO Candidates.
3. Finally, the 4 Pace Objects are also used to test the BALO Candidates.
(As we've discussed, there are some rule changes for E and EP objects on turf.)





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Has this response improved your knowledge?
(Or possibly made it worse?)

The issue is really SESSION PLAY, which all of those support nicely.

As I alluded to, I use something else.
It was built into HSH and will see the light of day in DET pretty quickly.

Probably not on June 28, but probably the week after.

Did I get the point across in the video?

If this answer is yes, I expect that it will be vitally important that we all work together in order to maximize the power of the de Terminator. I can imagine that it will be difficult and time consuming to discover new angles but if we as a group can mesh different angles together it could be quite powerful, and it would be a pretty fun handicapping journey. — Dave R

This should truly be a very small challenge.

However, I'm sure that COLLABORATION will be HUGE for almost all of you.

Remember... TWO-HUNDRED users maximum.
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What will be important - and I've mentioned it several times in videos - is that you do not dump what you're doing now.

What you need is:
1) A Core method of handicapping.
2) A Handicapping Flip that adds new and powerful information.
3) A second Handicapping Flip that adds new and powerful information.

The key to making it work is that 1,2 and 3 should not have a high correlation between them.

IOW, you can't do something like:
1. Best speed rating in 90 days
2. Best Speed rating ever.
3. Best speed rating at today's surface/distance.

While this is an overly simplistic example, it illustrates the point. During a conversation decades ago with the very smart Dick Mitchell, he once referred to this as "FACTOR OVERLAP."

Now my question to Dave is how many more of these types of angles will you be showing us through this onboarding process? — Dave R

Back to the original question. LOL

I spent about an hour while I was waiting for a doctor appointment the other day dictating a list of creative Handicapping Flips, which is my word for them.

I came up with about FORTY of them!
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There is a physics principle at play here that I derived from the work of French Astronomer Pierre-Simon Laplace that would indicate you should use an absolute maximum of THREE.

The concept I derived from Laplace's work (1770s on celestial mechanics and the stability of the solar system) allowed me a rudimentary understanding of how many such FLIPS can be applied.

The number I came up with is THREE, and going beyond the second one does not offer near as much gain as the first two.
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Lest I begin to reinforce my PA naysayer's opinion, I am only an amateur physics guy in most arenas. Heck, I struggle to read the equations.

However, I am really good at visualizing the concepts and that's where the real payoff is found.
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BTW, I the AI that I write is always a Genetic Algorithm. But they are a far cry from the GAs that you will read about in books. (Were you to actually read a book about GAs. LOL)

Now my question to Dave is how many more of these types of angles will you be showing us through this onboarding process? — Dave R

First, I must take issue with the word "angles."
That implies a set of rules that include track/surface/distance/etc. components.

These are concepts that can, with only minor variations in application, be applied across all races.

I understand that this idea of one-size-fits-all is very foreign to horseplayers because we are used to having to make sure that proper context is applied.
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"PROPER CONTEXT" is precisely what the AI does best.
In fact, this is the one thing that allows us to not only successfully challenge the whales but to BEAT THEM!

What we're doing is RIGGING THE GAME IN OUR FAVOR.
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How can I be so sure of this?

A number of times you've heard me refer to how the Whales handicap HORSES. That is, the HORSE is the entity in their database. Think of it sort of like saying, each factor has weights that are applied to each horse.

Basically, that means one large, global system.
Emphasis: ONE global system.

deTERMINATOR AI creates and manages MANY situational systems.
When I say, "Many" I mean HUNDREDS.

It's engine essentially DECIDES that this is a "type 143 race" or a "type 12" or whatever.

IOW, the CONTEXT is already applied!
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The Whales will eventually have to adapt by using AI themselves, but not today

But remember, that is not a trivial undertaking for them.

Think of it this way - they have a winning proposition NOW.
We're just going to be 200 guys.
That's TWO-HUNDRED PLAYERS who will be able to COMPETE with them.

Maybe 30 or 40 of you will go on to play on a professional level. Let's say that it's 40 guys, generating on average $250k per year. That's $10m profit.

Collectively, we do not even amount to a SINGLE NEW WHALE TEAM!.

Imagine that you have a thriving business - making 10s of millions per year. You will be very hesitant to just junk what the most important part of what you've been doing.
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Logically, they will eventually embrace the AI world.

But guess how they will logically do that.
They will integrate an existing package... like TensorFlow or similar.

Here's the thing... MY ENGINE IS BETTER.

What?
Well, why wouldn't it be?
It was DESIGNED to do one thing... UNDERSTAND and PROFIT FROM horse races.

There's a guy on PaceAdvantage who has often told me to just give up pretending that I am capable of stuff like this. LOL

Trust me. I am capable.

<More to come...>

The race was CHAOS 5 most likely because there were too many horses in the AI LINE's top 88%.
There can be other reasons but that is most common.
(I seeded that reason in the AI, but it has the ability to modify it.)

Ok watched the next video and seen the button that called Chaos 5. I missed it when you hit it on that Aqu 1. Was the reasoning for them being Balo because it was a chaos race ? — Ken Fee

No.
They are stand alone Handicapping Flips.
IOW, a race cannot be a BALO race because it is a CHAOS race or vice-versa.

I do not recall the race from memory. What was the CHAOS number?
0=No CHAOS
1 to 3 = Specialized CHAOS
4= CHAOS where the winner SHOULD be handicapped.
5= CHAOS where the advantage is in NOT HANDICAPPING.

@Chuck

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