Hi Dave, decided to join your Horsestreet blog site and I was just perusing. One of the questions I wanted to ask in terms of the HDW website and it's data is what Past Performance Data do you use. Is it Bris, Equibase, Drf? Also, one of your factors, or can or is this built-in, is horses in cycles tend to show either losing speed on the turn or from 2nd Call to the stretch as negative length loss. I tend to look for horses that have gone 1-2 races whereby this happens particularly if they are chasing and not close to the lead. I have had sucess with these types or will wait to they show improvement in their running. — Charles Lucas

1. Only HDW data.
Cost is $142 per month for all tracks with results.

2. Yes, there are several factors that refer to that.
Things like positions/length lost between calls.

Those are shown in several formats.
Last race
Per race in a graph
Time-decayed
Averages
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Truth: Our suggested approach to speed already recognizes that the 2nd call (i.e. EP) is not as important as it is made out to be.

Of the 52% of all winners that are within 1 length at the 2nd call, 44% of those were already on the lead at the 1st call.

IOW, the 2nd call challengers only account for 8% of all winners and their prices are low.
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"Do you know what you call a horse who makes a big move on the turn?"
The odds-on favorite.
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WOW!
Congratulations, @Conley!

Nice article.

TVG and Del Mar this year. — Tom

Sad, isn't it?

Have a chowder for me.

LOL
You're one of us - therefore, we root for your success.
You can do some advertising.

Be reasonable, of course.

Advertising is not allowed.
But you're one of us.

&

Tony is correct.
The challenge is that a $16k claiming race may really be anything from a $10 to a $25k race. Usually plus/minus 2 levels.

That's why I recommend using a strength of race rating instead of par.

My new software is really getting closer now.
It will blow your mind with stuff just like what you're talking about.

I guarantee that you've seen nothing even approaching it before.

Stay tuned.

Do you mean "Have ever run to today's par?"

I like this idea.

I am aware of no such tool, but it could be accomplished with some code in my future software - target for release is a few weeks away.

I pretty much pass nothing. LOL

I play races differently, but I believe there is always a way to leverage a bet out of a race.

Must admit, that this position is getting tougher to maintain.

Pete,

They're not coming to HSH. :)

That's a great idea.
HSH has a little of that, but I want to do more of it.

Well said, Tom.

I know a gentleman named Dan Silver who worked for NYRA. He's an excellent guy and tells me Andy is truly a good man. I've seen moments that make me wonder. — Tony Kofalt

As someone who has had a lifetime of struggles getting along with others, I can appreciate that could very possibly be the case. Either way, it's just simpler to give everyone the benefit of doubt.

As my mentor says, "We tend to judge others by their ACTIONS and ourselves by our INTENTIONS.

Guilty, your honor.

Serling was rude to Dave twice recently, so I have lost interest in his schtic — Tom

I must have missed that.

But I don't go looking for such stuff.
(Except on my home turf. LOL)

Rude is his style.
The people who love him think he's the greatest.
He's certainly a better handicapping analyst than I am, though I'd guess my long-term performance is probably at least as good.

I was set straight by God's gidt to horseracing, Andy Serling, that there
is no racing there until Saturday. — Tom

:rofl:

That's correct.

Ah.
I thought that was a harness meet.

Horseshoe Indianapolis 05-09-2023--- 2nd Race

6 Furlongs. Clm 5000b Purse $14,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2022 - 2023 SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE — Mickey Arnold

I actually believe I have seen this one before.
Literally, this one.
Since I've never handicapped a harness race, I have to assume that it was at some southern track.

Does anyone have any idea why there have been so many scratches this year?

Good fortune to all of you.

I'm thinking it's a trick question-- so Race 2. Guessing one of the ES78's presses the other initially out of the gate, so much so that the horse being pressed makes the lone lead at the 1st call. The one ES78 horse breaks and then waits for competition that isn't there, isn't really pressed, and never gets the lone lead. — Jim Pommier

I asked the question because it is really germane to your original post.


Not a trick question.

• The issue is that the world knows there is only one front runner in the race.
• That world includes trainers and jockeys.
• At least 1 other horse will challenge for the lead because they all know that if he isn't challenged, he'll be gone.
• The problem is we don't know who.

Predictability

• The more front runners there are in the race, the more reliable the pace will be.
• The more reliable the pace will be the more reliable the handicapping will be.
• The more reliable the handicapping, the lower the likely odds on the winner.

The pace model in the Derby has always been 1st call.
It's also been like low 4 public choices.

But, based upon the PREDICTABILITY part of this post, I'd say there is potential for medium or even high prices.
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Remember that I am a guy who doesn't actually take any big race seriously.