Interesting Stat:

You have two races:
Race 1 has only one ES 78 horse.
Race 2 has two ES78 horses.

Which race is more likely to produce an actual LONE F at the 1st call?
(Meaning, which only one horse within 1 length at the 1st call.)

Interesting. I would think the horse still needs to have indicators that it is ready to step outside the maiden ranks. — RanchWest

Not the same.
On is a choice and the other is forced.

I think it would not necessarily have to be a maiden winner. Some horses step outside the maiden ranks before breaking their maiden. — RanchWest

That's logical.

But Interestingly, those horses actually perform better than the maiden winners do.

PS: The theory is that the maiden winner could take quite a while to find the level in claiming (or NW Alw) where it could be competitive.

Thanks ...... I like the idea of horses leaving the maiden ranks with a speed figure(s) which can be questioned at the new class level. Also, shippers ...... can look at that from both the track and the trainer perspective. — Jim Pommier

On the topic of maiden winners...

When I was selecting pacelines, I'd penalize a maiden winner 5 lengths until it finished 2nd or better (or within a neck of the winner) in a non-maiden event.

This really seemed to improve the results.

As you can imagine, I've got a lot of opinions on this topic.

Rather than dominate the conversation (which can be my nature), you guys talk and I'll offer up whatever you feel is necessary.

There IS a way to win with the whales, but it's not Make a Line and Bet Into it.

Obviously, marketing would be over the top, but I really don't have a problem with discussions about @RanchWest's product.

It does.
Those are the best pace numbers I've ever seen and far better than what are generated using my own par times.

I know his formula (because he shared it with me), and could implement and improve it using my pars. But that would just not be cool.

So, I continue to utilize his numbers.

BTW, in dirt route races the best ever F1 top rank is slightly profitable ($2.02 $net).

WOW!

I love the way you leverage your opinion.

Does what I describe hold enough interest for you to consider using the software?

Would there be plenty of room for mistakes? lol — RanchWest

I sure hope we could find some.

Imagine that you want to track something - what I call FLAG.

You create a tag for a FLAG - giving it a name on the left, and a description on the right.

left pane: Flag Name=Lone ES Races
right pane: Question= "In a race with just one horse with ES Pts 7+, how often does that horse actually get the lead at the 1st call?"
right pane: A simple table that allows you to manually enter each such horse in a row with whatever columns you want.

Dave, I'm sorry if I wasn't clear but I don't know of a way to assign notes to jockeys or trainers. You can add notes for individual horses, a race (which adds the notes to each horse in the race) or by card which adds the note to every horse on the card. — Tony Kofalt

So glad to hear that. LOL
Hope we can have a call soon so I can discuss what I have in mind.

The idea is that notes are almost free form in the sense that there are tagging columns.

Think of them as key words.
Examples:

• Horse
• Jockey
• Trainer
• Track
• Race ID (i.e. Date/Trakc/RaceNum)
• Date
• Chart
• Bias, Pace
• Bias, Post Pos
• My Bets

The note system contains a powerful search engine.

Imagine you are looking at a chart the day after the race.
Horse #1 had trouble.
You write a note.
You also can drag-and-drop a link to the video for the race.

You tag the horse & jockey.
Obviously, the date, track, and race numbers are tagged automatically.

In that same race, the winner won because of the trouble the first horse had.
So, you tag that horse in the same note.

The note is saved.
_________
When horse #1 runs back, all his past notes are listed.
You see the trouble note.
When you open that note, you also see the other tags (i.e. jockey, horse, etc.).

You could also find the note in the Jockey's notes.

All tags can be opened at the same time in a Tree-like format.

An example would be this tool that I use to store code from different programs that I've written.


The topics would show in the left pane, with the notes on the right.

Does this pique your interest?

BTW, you COULD maintain statistics in the DOCUMENT (the right hand pane).
Bets
Tickets (flagged as won or lost; for tax purposes)
Big Winners
Mistakes

That is just what I am looking for.

So, can you hook trainer, jockey and horse notes to a chart as well?

And, if you look at a trainer, can you see notes for trainer+jockey?

Frankly, I'm trying to figure out how to do that. LOL

My point is try to develop a methodology that 'feels' good to you. Then don't be too quick to abandon it. — Tony Kofalt

Wonderful advice. :clap: :up:
It has to fit your style.

IMHO, one of the reasons you've been able to support yourself as a true professional for the almost 3 decades that I've known you is that you always wear a reality hat.

To do this, I simply click on the 'Notes' button located on the right side of the line beginning with standard chart. A small window will open allowing me to enter 'Note' for each horse in the race as well as a note for the entire race (which will be added to the PP's of each starter.) I could also choose to enter a note for the entire card which will display in the PP's of each starter. — Tony Kofalt

Thank you.

Could you take a screen shot of what the notes mechanism actually looks like?

That's my primary area of interest.

When you Dutch 2 (or more) horses, the goal is to make the same return no matter which horse wins.

In my experience, because of late odds changes - which shift the ultimate winner's odds down - the end result is too much on the loser and too little on the winner.

Hope that makes sense I couldn't find the link but found it now — Conley

Does make sense.
Do you find that you are consistently betting the horses in the correct proportions or are you betting less on the winners than you should?

WPS
Really like a horse with a high% of hitting: Win Bet
Like a horse but need back up in case it does not win: Win/Place/Show
10-1+ Longshot: Win/Place
Like 2 horses to win here: Dutch Win Bets
Like 3 horses to win here: Dutch Win Bets — Conley

What odds do you use to Dutch?

My belief would be that you need to find a BALO.
(Bet Against Low Odds horse)

Not to bet against but to actually bet!

I think that if you search for BALO and LEVERAGE POINT you will find some explanations of how and why.

Short version: BALOs win way LESS often than they should but run 2nd way MORE often than they should.