When you Dutch 2 (or more) horses, the goal is to make the same return no matter which horse wins.

In my experience, because of late odds changes - which shift the ultimate winner's odds down - the end result is too much on the loser and too little on the winner.

Hope that makes sense I couldn't find the link but found it now — Conley

Does make sense.
Do you find that you are consistently betting the horses in the correct proportions or are you betting less on the winners than you should?

WPS
Really like a horse with a high% of hitting: Win Bet
Like a horse but need back up in case it does not win: Win/Place/Show
10-1+ Longshot: Win/Place
Like 2 horses to win here: Dutch Win Bets
Like 3 horses to win here: Dutch Win Bets — Conley

What odds do you use to Dutch?

My belief would be that you need to find a BALO.
(Bet Against Low Odds horse)

Not to bet against but to actually bet!

I think that if you search for BALO and LEVERAGE POINT you will find some explanations of how and why.

Short version: BALOs win way LESS often than they should but run 2nd way MORE often than they should.

I'm interested to see how result charts play into your handicapping process, if at all. I use DRF Formulator result charts for the following information.
How did starters run in subsequent races.
Did the race invert? For example, did all of the speed tire?
What kind of Beyers did runners post in subsequent races?
Did any of todays rivals run against a horse last time?
Review the PP's of the winner in the last race,
How are you utilizing result charts today? Thanks for the feedback — Tony Kofalt

Can you possibly show (or describe) how you keep notes for charts?

I'm working on the notes section of the new software and would love to see a few examples of how you do it.

so I have access to their premium products. — Tony Kofalt

What sort of products do they offer?

@Tom

Good post.
The fact that you posted it caused me to actually read it this time.
:smile:

@RanchWest has done some work in this area and I've got to say it has plenty of merit.

I know Ranch has shared it before but perhaps he can reprise that a bit.

Way to go, @Conley

We've reached the point of diminishing returns here.

We see the wagering world far differently.

I contend that the profitable ones are.

If you have an edge, you *** ARE *** the casino.

So, you don't believe that card counters can win at black jack?

Although winning methods can exist , which counter balance the effects of "random chance ", the "Holy Grail" cannot exist unless "chance" is completely eliminated. — William Zayonce

Casinos seem to do reasonably well despite the fact that "chance" exists.

I have also learned that the Holy Grail is migratory. — RanchWest

That quote is worth the price of admission.

I generally refer to it as "fragile" but perhaps "migratory" is better because it does seem to come and go. And dare I add, "... never to return."

Indeed.
What he is doing is pretty fantastic.

Did you notice that his average mutuel is $3.57?

Thought provoking Dave. I seem to recall you describing 'Whales' going through a similar process each year. — Tony Kofalt

Yes.
I understand that they begin working on it during the summer so that they're prepared to roll it out in January.

That's why things seem to change from year to year.

A famous full-time player I use to speak with often, said that for 4 straight years his ROI went down. When he saw it go negative 4 months in a row, he pulled the plug on his racing career.

He was a mini-whale himself - wagering just shy of $40m per year.
BTW, he was the only fully automated operation I ever heard of.

Interesting.. we'll need to discover "Which " components to use and "How" to combine them, perhaps tossing in some "negative enhancement" features ? — William Zayonce

That would be the idea.

2022 EOY results
2022 handle was down over 50% from prior year(s)
Year end total ROI was exactly 20% and the $Net was 2.4.
Highest $Net of 3.4 was achieved wagering on P5's
Second highest $Net of 2.37 came from Win bets
I was a loser in both P3 and P4 wagering pools with $Nets of 0.86 and 1.66 respectively.

Observations:
Reduced handle was due my struggle with anxiety and depression.
Low $Net in P3 and P4 wagers was a surprise. Appears to be due to poor decisions regarding value.
Handle on Win bets was up significantly from prior years as was the profit!!
P5's continue to be my most profitable plays — Tony Kofalt

When I tell people that this is how the professional & winning players do it - "Tony the K" is the epitome of that.

Can you see how there is zero AVOIDANCE OF REALITY in all this?

That's the absolute starting point to succeeding at betting.

I know guys who keep more stats about their wagering, but I don't know anyone who looks at them as often as Tony.

How about I start with prayers & best wishes for a better 2023 for you and yours?

^^^^^^
THIS!
This is what a winning player looks like.


Best to you in your 2023 endeavors.