Love the story.
I've heard similar before.
Had an old friend/client (early '90s) Jeff G. who had Robbie Davis' book for a while. The stories I got were really amazing.

I think it would even better if broken down by surface/distance as well. — Tom

Oh, we'll do WAY MORE than that.

I'm going to re-do our trainer stats as well, and those are already mind-blowing.

We have the usual stuff like---


But we've also got PERFORMANCE STATS.


But I want to re-do them ad add a couple hundred more factors.

It's in the Bris Ultimate PPs.
As Richie Migliore says about early speed as a weapon,"They have to go where I've already been." — Tom

Excellent.
A feature we need in The Studio.

I asked Rich about this (above), but I should have asked you. I am a confused on the need to Sort by. Can you explain a little or give an example? Thanks for sharing! — Biniak

Easy.
You have 10 pacelines for a horse.
There are 3 issues:
1. Which pacelines are QUALIFIED?
2. How many do we want to SELECT?
3. How should we ORDER them to determine which to select?

1. Is similar surface, similar distance, lengths behind/ahead.
2. Is a determination that should change depending upon the confidence we have in the selection.

3. Is what you asked about.
Imagine you have 10 pacelines.
Step 1 slims that down to (say) 3 pacelines.
If it slimmed it down to just one, you would need a sort, right?

But with 3 pacelines, you need some way to ORDER them.
Sort by:
most recent
closest distance
fastest final time

This particular sort will really only require "Most Recent" because there will never be a tie (unless the horse raced twice in one day. - It HAS happened.)

But some of the other conditions require more sorts.

THE POINT
You will sort and take the TOP LINE (or top 2, 3 or whatever).

Hope this explains it.

My mistake.
I forgot that I changed the rules about 5 years ago.
Had to go look at the code.

It appears that I changed it to 1st or 2nd, or less than 1.00 lengths.

Good catch.

Okay, I'm lost. I don't understand how the two example horses earned a G for the races marked. There's something I don't understand here. — RanchWest

Because they won those races.
Or, they finished so close that it counts as a win.

More specifically, #6 won her 5th race back which was:

• Same surface as today.
• Similar distance as today.
• Same or higher class as today.

What are you not understanding about that?

I'm trying to follow along. Should that be 2 lengths? And maybe 3 in a route? — RanchWest

No. It is exactly as I said:

G=Won on today's surface, at today's approximate distance, at today's class or higher.
(Losing by a neck or less counts as a win.) — Dave Schwartz

G=Finish within a neck or a win.

I know that I talked to a trainer at Lone Star who told me that if a jockey didn't try to go to the front end on his horses, they wouldn't be riding for him long. — RanchWest

@Tony Kofalt

I am under the impression that most trainers tell the jockey how to ride the horse and, if the jockey ignores his wishes, he doesn't get mounts.

Is that true?

BTW, are you still a jockey agent?

If I may, I'm going to play a little devil's advocate here for the sake of discussion and say when selecting a single representative paceline to predict today's outcome, This may give you the runner's "ability level"...but would seem to ignore the condition and form cycle pattern of the runner when that particular representative paceline was earned...which could have no relationship to the current condition and form cycle pattern...which greatly affects today's "ability level." Thanks guys. — Dustin Korth

Absolutely right!
"How good is the horse?" and "Is the horse in form?" are certainly two different questions.

The other day, I posted this as a reply in the Live & Breath Handicapping Facebook group when someone was looking for ways to figure out a complicated race conditions. I suggested this.



Here's a screenshot I just took of a concept I built back in 2001.
The yellow box represents the last 10 races for each horse.
_________
G=Won on today's surface, at today's approximate distance, at today's class or higher.
(Losing by a neck or less counts as a win.)
_________
B=Lost today's surface, at today's approximate distance, at today's class or lower.
_________
The Dots are races at the wrong surface, wrong distance, too high a class, or off-track.
IOW, the horse had a valid excuse.
_________
As you can see, very few horses actually are entered in a race where they actually fit.
BTW, the LINE column indicates the horse's odds in the most recent race where they got a G.
The theory is that if the horse won at what he's trying to do today, then he should be an overlay at that price or higher.

Of course, this worked out.

I write handicapping stuff, right? LOL
_________

I look forward to watching this.

Thank you.

Yes, we use that one as well.
Based upon last 365 days

What other cool ideas do you have?

I'm against them. :lol:

Actually working on getting that into the new software.

Have not had good jockey stuff since my DOS days.

Most powerful is Photo Finish Win Pct.

Preparing for screenshots next week as I am cleaning up quite a few windows.

Dave - can you tell us more about the roll-out?
Any seminars planned?
Reference material? — stevekisslinger

Too early for that.
Can't record videos until things are finished.

But I'd expect that you'll start seeing screenshots by this time next week.

Why not do this! Let's say your kick back from HDW is $30 per month from each HSH downloader. You could then take that $30 per month and say if you want to use Brisnet data files the cost in $30 per month or $360 for the year. You could even say if you pay for the year up front, you get a 10% discount and that's $324. I'm sure there are players that would go for that!

If a user pays for one month, after that month the software is locked until you pay for another month or for the year! — Mark

As the president of BRIS said to me 30 years ago, "You don't expect to make a living at this, do you?"
(He offered me a 5% split on the download fees.)

In order to justify investing $150,000 in software development, the cost would need to be $75 per month, plus an annual fee for new upgrades.

It just isn't investable as a business.

That's why the BRIS software is typically so poor.

Seems that is good news for current HSH users. — RanchWest

Well, I'd hope that we'd pick up 100+ new users outside of current HSH users.

There are a lot of horse players who purchase "reports" and spend close to the same amount as this software will provide.

Imagine a whole bunch of selectors and picker for every track.
Imagine unique reports for every track.
The list goes on and on.

Of course, the 3-4 day per month players can never justify spending money on software.

I simply cannot serve that market.

So, this uses the same data as HSH? — RanchWest

Yes.
That is the only possible business model that works for a software vendor.

It's like what All-Ways software does with listing the top 10 Bris speed ratings. — Mark

Exactly!

Dave's idea is to take the sorted 6th highest figure and look for an 8/1+ horse that is within that 1st to 6th range. I think Steve probably gets it now. — RanchWest

Not 6th but Top 6.

What is it Dave said in one of his workshops "Often wrong, seldom in doubt". — Steven

One of my favorite quotes, along with one from the TV series, Billions: "I am not uncertain."