QES Quirin Early Speed is showing a positive ROI — Steven

How are you picking the horse(s) to bet?

Most points?
A minimum pct?
Multiple horses?

Drop the third highest payoff of $35.40 (maiden race) and the ROI drops to 1.98. — Steven

Still shows how powerful it is.

• How many races in the sample?
• Is it ALL SPRINTS?
• Have you considered breaking races out by ES Point "Shapes?"

"Shape" means (for example):
7-8's in the race?

We actually had it in our DOS product, the Handicapper's Notebook. (HNB)

Thank you.

Guys, I am so under the weather that I seriously doubt I will have the forum's Grand Opening before Christmas.

This virus-thing is really debilitating.
(Not Covid - in week 3 now.)

Amazingly, I've done several hundred slides for the upcoming Percentages & Probabilities 2022 book and webinar. Not sure when I will be able to actually start recording them.

As for the forum, I've literally made zero progress on what needs to be done. Sure hope I can put this behind me by next week.

I like that!

Not easily available.

What are NEXT OUT WINNERS?

Dave do I become one of those Founding Members yet? Or what do I have to do to be on the list? — Conley

Of course.

When I started betting to make a living I became wary of making changes as there is a fine line between winning and losing. — Tony Kofalt

:up: :up: :up:


OH, SING IT BROTHER K!!!

Winning can be so very fragile.

I like longshot closers in a chaos race for my contrarian urges. — RanchWest

How do you determine that a race is chaotic?

[Moved this thread to Handicapping.]

:grin:

Love it.

Or are you like one guy I knew... a Big Chief Tablet handicapper? Do you have confidence in what you are doing? — RanchWest

What the heck is Big Chief Tablet?

Is it this?
https://www.amazon.com/Original-Big-Chief-Writing-Primary/dp/B0094ILCJC

I've decided to change the FOUNDING MEMBERS to be only 10!

Keep your ideas coming.

This may require some thought but at first pass I don't like the idea. I also see some issues with jockey safety as well. I should study up on this as some folks believe it is a good idea. lol — Tony Kofalt

I really look forward to your POV.
I thought it would IMPROVE safety for the riders because you wouldn't have the guys coming through on the rail.

I actually hope you're right because CHANGE is the ENEMY of UNDERSTANDING.

You're very coachable.
Glad this is working out well for you.

Hope you guys don't mind but I'm going to move this to the handicapping forum.

Welcome, and Thank you.

Quick question about your Par Times:
Did you say that when I purchase the 2021 Electronic/Hard Copy Par Times this year I will get the 2022 Pars for free? And did you say on or before December 15th? — Conley

Yes. We do that every year.
In YOUR case, you can order now and we'll give you the 2022's when they're available.

Dave, I would take advantage of this but I believe that I literally own everything that’s not HSH specific. — Steven

Well, I'm going to build the new P&P just for you. :cool:

I believe I need to focus more on including the best speed horses. Here is my plan of attack.
!) it is acceptable for all of your contenders to show early speed of lay close to the pace.
2) it is acceptable to include a mix of speed type (early and late) on your tickets
3) it is NOT acceptable to build contenders when none of them figure to press or be involved early.
The exception would be an off the pace 'single'.
I don't know how I let this happen but the post race autopsy gave me the insight to implement a solution.
Any thoughts? — Tony Kofalt

My research on this - and where I began with the Early Speed Series - is to do something I call SUBSET HANDICAPPING.

You saw a hint of it in the 8-Point Horse post.

That is, asking the question, "What happens if the 8-point horse doesn't win?"

Assuming the Percentages & Probabilities 2022 product does well, I will continue to do more products. My prime focus will definitely be on SUBSET HANDICAPPING.

Teaser:
My belief is that late horses are not typically predictable.
It's more like saying "Late horses win when early horses lose."

Trust me when I say that the impact of that is almost as startling as the 8-point losers.