I would prefer you didn't publish results that cannot be validated (especially for a small sample). Otherwise, it's just like the babble on Fox or the after the fact analysts on CNBC. I won't even mention the other fake news network. Sorry! — Biniak

You can prefer what ever you want, but I doubt you will ever get your preferences fulfilled.

If all the conversation on a forum is only for VALIDATED RESULTS then the bar is just too high and there will be zero new ideas put forth.

If I publish anything, it would be based upon SOME STUDY, but it can never be enough to call it rigorous, otherwise, the cost will be so high as to be unaffordable.

@JRand,
You CAN message me, of course.

But you CAN'T get the answer in return. :grin:

I'd like to get on that list as well. — JRand

Sorry, but no.

Read this thread and you will understand.

How do you determine if a horse is BET AGAINST? — Rich Val

WOW!
You're actually here!
Great to hear from you!

Folks, this is the guy who taught me the 7 Days in Utopia approach!

ANSWER: Not quite ready to go public with that, but I will DM you.

Is there anything you can share about your bet/not bet decision process? — RanchWest

Not willing at this time.
I will likely turn it into a workshop for my HSH guys.

It's like 90 seconds in HSH and 15 minutes with paper & pencil.

You won't be sorry, I forgot just how many pages of data it contains, but if I'm not mistaken there is over 150 pages. — Jim Parker

Actually, there are over 2,400 pages!

Dave, in the materials, the tables can get them with all the ranked pace factors. — Bill T

Forgive me but I don't know what that means.

Recommendation
In our software we actually do not try to show the TOTE ODDS.
We want to show the EXACT number, such as 2.52 or 2.99.

It works far better for predicting low odds horses.

Also, we like to show POOL PERCENTS.

I knew one pro player who did.
Claimed that it had great value.

He also tracked what he called "cause scratches."
Those were scratches where the horse was entered in another race within the next 6 days.

He said those were far more valuable.

FWIW, in our software we use these factors to predict the odds.

I actually did nothing but sweep the file for viruses and host it on our site.

Steven did all the work.

This is really good work!

Do you recall how Huey Mahl did this thing he called The Length Variant? This connects me to the next idea, and all of it connects back to YOUR WORK.

When I was doing work for some AUS a couple of years ago, I found some of their ideas quite intriguing. One was the idea of expressing "How They Ran" in terms of Odds & Beaten Lengths.

Thus, if you look at each odds range, and come up with the average lengths behind, one could say that a horse who ran (say) 2.5 lengths behind ran like he was (say) 5/2.

Your work is similar but expressed as a win percentage (I assume).

This is a really goods idea.

I'm not sure I'm understanding "subsets". Are we looking at races where the best early speed number is 7-8, and then races where best early speed number is 5-6, and then races where best early speed number is 3-4 and we're doing this to see if 7-8 races produce more winnners (or more money) than 5-6 races? — Steven

Yes.
I'd expect that a 5-6 horse would perform better/differently in a field where there were no 7-8s.

This is overly simplistic - and subsets cut down your sample sizes - demanding far more races. Like a full magnitude more.

But the info you gather is huge, as are the ensuing improvements.

Gee, aren't you the greatest poster in the history of PaceAdv?

LOL

Welcome over here, old friend.

Can you break it down to where the top horse is 5 or 6 ? Then break that down to those with 5 or 6 which also have a 4 point edge? — William Zayonce

Yes, and please have this on my desk by tomorrow morning.


Geez, Bill. Maybe clip a couple of c-notes to this request. LOL

PS: Exciting, isn't it?

So that means a top horse "8" and a top horse "3" are all included.

And THAT means you can easily break out the 3s from the 8s and all the others to see if there are SUBSETS that are more powerful.

You should have a good time with that.

So, if you had a race where the horses were:

• 8
• 5
• 3
• 3
• 1
• 1
• 0

You'd play the 8?

QES Quirin Early Speed is showing a positive ROI — Steven

How are you picking the horse(s) to bet?

Most points?
A minimum pct?
Multiple horses?

Drop the third highest payoff of $35.40 (maiden race) and the ROI drops to 1.98. — Steven

Still shows how powerful it is.

• How many races in the sample?
• Is it ALL SPRINTS?
• Have you considered breaking races out by ES Point "Shapes?"

"Shape" means (for example):
7-8's in the race?