R8, 466 day layoff horse beat me. Maker is 17% on long layoffs and almost 20% first for a tag.

Gasoline did not disappoint. Impressive.

Very good call, Tony!

In R8,I do like that your 3 and 7 are first for a tag. But I see a lot of potentials in that race. Guess I will stick with the chalk, the 9.

Basic Truth in a general sense should improve on the drop. But his trainer is 0/10 on 2TS. And, I don't like his work tab... 31 day gap followed by a slow work. I think the price should be right on the 4 and the 7.

In Race 8, I like the 9, but likely the fave.

Really glad you did well. It is really impressive how well you are able to evaluate both your professional and private life. Not many people are able to do that.

As you have found, for any solid handicapper who can bankroll the P5, it is a great wager because your expertise puts you ahead of so many in the pools. Most people can get one or two in a P5 sequence, but it takes a dedicated person to catch all 5. Granted that sometimes it takes a little luck, but as Johnny Oates stated, luck is when preparation and opportunity meet.

Happy New Year and best wishes for 2023.

Happy New Year! Looking forward to the college football playoffs!

Merry Christmas and Season’s Greetings!

Life begins anew at 72...LOL. — Mickey Arnold

I guess I am the youngun. I turned 70 this week.

Yes, trainers only know their own horses. Some trainers are really sharp. Some, not so much.

Yeah, rule 1: Don't assume a trainer is smart.

Basically, as a handicapper you will often benefit from thinking like a trainer. Of course, in order to do that, you have to study how trainers think. I once told a trainer that I knew the move he was making and he looked at me like I was Satan. lol

Also, races available from the racing secretary, as well as changes of venue and priorities of the trainer.

Form cycle. Dave has a product that deals with form cycles. Gives some insight into what we often miss. Horses aren't cars.

Results are not often really random Yes, sometimes an animal bumps into a horse or the jockey falls off or there is a breakdown or something. But those are fairly rare. I believe that most unexpected results are set up by pace and class drops that were not discerned (including MSW to MCL) as well as second time starters.

I think a good contender list will usually have at least one longshot and the question must always be whether the longshot(s) have a legit chance. Never play a longshot and you will never hit a longshot. Always bet a longshot and you will go broke.

Just my thoughts.

I respectfully disagree. I think the next wave of computer handicapping will be decision tree based and will be much better than today.

Johnny Oates said that luck is when preparation and opportunity meet.

We will see more and more sophisticated means of handicapping. But I still believe that racing will always be undergoing change. So, if we become convinced that we are "there", we won't be for long.

Glad you liked it. I enjoy YouTube... a big variety of content.

To manage the whole field they'll use a "base" of 110% to 130% depending on the difficulty of the field.So comparing "your" line to "theirs " is "apples and oranges". — William Zayonce

As I stated, I adjust the morning line to a base of 100 plus I remove scratches, still maintaining the 100 base.

I know it is apples and oranges, but it is a simple way to seek out discrepancies in the lines.