It's not AI.

It is done using factors from HSH and mathematical jujutsu.

65 more races =

Races with at least 1 rank 1: 44 68%
(There can/will be multiple horses per race that have
at 1 rank 1 in their factors.)
Races with no rank 1's and at least 1 rank 2: 14 22%
Races with NO rank 1's or 2's: 7 11%

If a horse has no rank 1's or 2's, there is a 89% chance
that they will lose.

Horses may rank low, but still have a single 1 e.g.
1-7 and rank 5+ and still be able to win. Do not
overlook these horses.

65 more races =

88: 2-3-4
rank 1-3 = 36 82%
rank 4 = 4 9%
rank 5+ = 3 7%

88:5+
rank 1-3 = 10 48%
rank 4 = 0
rank 5+ = 11 52%

Swing for the fences ONLY when races are 88:5+??
Or in races 88:2-3-4 where a top 4 horse has a rank 1 or 2
and is high odds.

Original date published: 5-18-2000

Good things never go out of style!!
:love:

Fantastic!!! WOW!!!

There is much less variability on months and days of the week
than I expected.

5 and 6 horse fields are MUCH higher than I expected.

At what percentages should we make exceptions? Or will the AI already
have that figured in?

(Everyone had better get this right!!)
(Anyone have a nun for a teacher that REMINDED them with a
slap of the ruler across the knuckles?)

1984? Darn I'm old. Never got the fashion gene though. I am DEFINITELY
a fashion faux pas!!

James "Sonny" Crockett and Ricardo "Rico" Tubbs are the main characters from the American crime drama television series "Miami Vice." The series aired on NBC from September 16, 1984, to June 28, 1989, and featured Crockett and Tubbs as undercover detectives working for the Metro-Dade Police Department in Miami.


James "Sonny" Crockett
Crockett is portrayed by Don Johnson. He idolized the Texas Rangers as a child and became a law enforcement officer. He rose through the ranks with two fellow Academy graduates, Mike Orgel and Evan Freed. Orgel's death left Crockett with years of guilt until he was redeemed after Evan saved Crockett's life. After the death of his mentor, Crockett began a partnership with Tubbs that lasted five years, during which they brought down numerous drug cartels.

Ricardo "Rico" Tubbs
Tubbs is portrayed by Philip Michael Thomas. He relocated to Miami from New York City to track down his brother's murderer. He appeared in all but one of the show's 111 episodes and became a fashion icon, influencing trends with his Miami Vice-related clothing. His portrayal earned Thomas a People's Choice Award and a Golden Globe Award nomination.

Together, Crockett and Tubbs took on the Florida drug world, influencing men's fashions and interior decor trends with their distinctive styles.

Rumors are Hialeah may be an alternative.

The flamingos from the cop show Miami Vice opening were beautiful.

Anyone think this is a go or will the decoupling from casino cash
drop the purses so low they will just shut down south Florida racing
completely?

Started doing more testing on the update
with a Tuesday in August (Prx, Tdn, Fl, Ind) =

45% winners on top
33% winners in 2nd
22% 3rd or worse

If it holds, imagine 78% hit rate by dutching the top
2 rated horses. And not a single one paid under $4.00.

Unbelievable!!!

Be there Thursday night!! I will be.

Results of a 10 race sample (very short and not indicative of
future results):
see below to open

My results sheet:
see below to download if you want to use it

1. There was only 1 favorite that won in the sample so results
are heavily skewed in my favor.
2. I did modify the strategy outlined above. I will go over the
changes Wednesday night.

It CAN be done!!

More:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89ogadnQ8uo

We have many options available:
Class level of last good race
class level of best good race
Average competitive level
Back class
Earnings per start
Earnings box class
Composite earnings-based class
Composite level-based class
Time-decay class performance
Time-decay average purse value

And, like you said - is speed just another way of quantifying
class? An the others also.

We have more than enough ways to determine it. Is it just a
personal choice on which one you use? Which do you think
is best?

Which is the most profitable? Need to do some research on that.

can you summarize Randy Giles handicapping book
information from 25 web pages
"Extreme Pace Handicapping: If You Doodle They Will Come" by Randy Giles focuses on the concept of pace handicapping in horse racing. Here's a summary based on available information:

Core Concept: Giles emphasizes that the best payoffs often come from races with extreme pace aberrations, not from typical or pedestrian-style races. He introduces the idea of "pace picture doodling," a simple yet effective method for understanding and predicting race outcomes based on pace scenarios.
Methodology: The book discusses how to identify and categorize horses into different pace profiles like "The Thief," "The Clever Thief," "The Loner," and "The Carpetbagger." These profiles help in understanding how horses might perform given specific pace conditions in a race.

Practical Tools: Giles provides techniques for quick analysis, including making small charts or "doodles" to organize and rank horses by their Quirin speed points and running styles. This method helps in visualizing potential pace scenarios and identifying horses likely to benefit from those scenarios.

Reception: Reviews on the book vary. Some users have found it insightful for understanding pace handicapping, appreciating its simplicity and effectiveness in practice. Others were less impressed, citing a desire for more detailed explanations or clearer presentation of the concepts. However, many reviewers acknowledge that the book has helped improve their handicapping skills, particularly in terms of identifying when to bet on or against favorites based on pace analysis.

Author's Background: Randy Giles has dedicated his handicapping career to pace analysis, developing formulas and software like the Velocity Generator to assess race pace dynamically. He has been involved in horse racing research for over 18 years, focusing on horse psychology and the physiological effects of pace velocity.

This summary reflects the key points from the book as described in various online reviews and descriptions.

from Pony: I found the book to be very insightful and
well worth the purchase price.

The concepts generated a lot of thought. Like Dave said,
I'm not so sure on the particulars of each of the styles presented.

Anyone able to articulate the 5+ count?

As a JCapper user, I had many LONG conversations
with Ron over the years. He was always so very helpful
and gave out his expert knowledge about racing freely.

I will miss him. I considered him a friend.

Can it mine bitcoin?

Can't wait!!

Your tease has me counting the minutes.

Great to have you aboard.

Welcome!!

When I was 4, I ran away from home. My mom packed up my bindle
and stick and sent me out the front door.

I made it to the corner before deciding this wasn't such a good idea.

George seems to have come to the same conclusion.

REMEMBER = The NEAL needs to be a minimum of +10
or
50% bet down from the AI line.

I think I got that right.

@Neal Freedman correct me if I am wrong.

I bow to your greatness!!

DON'T underestimate the power of "the NEAL"





How logical was that - even the Super!!

Thanks to Jim Pommier for doing a great job!!

Next time, don't do such a good job or I might get replaced.
:grin: