just the Cap button for now.

I'm re-running some past races that I played live against this new Pace Model/method 71. Geez Louise. The frequency in which the exacta is coming from the best three or best four pc ranks is staggering. Too early for any meaningful stats to share, so I'm not ready to call this a method in and of itself. But the possibilities are pretty exciting- let's say I've landed on my win and place contenders in the form of an ABC/ABCDE exacta ticket. That's $24. But now let's say I have the confidence to lay an AB/ABC ticket for $8 on top of it. For a 32 dollar investment it appears I'll often have a strong likelihood of cashing a 2x exacta hit. I see this as a way to improve value while still maintaining hit rate (an ongoing conundrum for me as an exacta player). I'll keep studying, and in the process I'll keep an eye on how those 62 and 88 numbers factor into how deep these tickets need to be.

For now ,I encourage anyone who keeps some sort of tracking of past races- whether it be a formal model, a simple spreadsheet or just your notes- to go back and see how this pc button with method 71 will impact your ability to leverage stronger tickets.

the primary discussion on the mechanics of the buttons starts at the 11-minute mark and Dave illustrates an example that sets up his Pace-E button. At 15:30 he does the same for Late and at 17-minutes he does SR. In each case he's using a Fibonacci to illustrate. The takeaway here is that we'll need to experiment with these settings to find what works best for our individual style of play. I should point that that my eight green buttons are labelled out of the box as Mdl-1, Mdl-2, Mdl-3 etc.

Separately, at the 25-minute mark Dave begins an important discussion about the importance of the 62 and 88 buttons. I had been paying attention to these early on and had identified that races 88.6 and above were too chaotic for my handicapping, but outside of that I had stopped looking at them. Dave's discussion at this point of the video on how these numbers relate to this pace approach is worthy of highlighting.

Yes I'm watching an encore of the video on Sunday morning and will post the time that discussion occurs. I do recall it being from the first half of the video.

I've just watched the video, and it's obvious I will need to watch it at least one more time. Lots to unpack here. My questions for now:

1. What does pc Method 71 do differently from the important buttons that deT2 introduced? I've been relying on abPace/BH and BR2/pcrH, abRx, abRy. I've built a system that looks at all of these and gives me very good answers. I'll be re-playing recent races that I've played live to see if I can discern the differences. But any context will be interesting to know.

2. I really like this new Pace Model's ability to weight each individual race. I'm now comparing these weights against the the red and green pace designation from the "front" of the AI Assistant panel. Sometimes they are consistent- meaning that the highest weighted pace button from the new Pace Model matches the green Abby Pace designation. But sometimes they don't align. Why is that?

My initial observation of where I hope this all goes- my existing deT process is pretty darned good and I'm super-pleased with what it's been doing. But the final piece of the puzzle that I've been searching for is an adjudication of the low odds horses. It looks like this new Pace Model might be that final piece. So I envision this as a final step to ENHANCE but not REPLACE my existing process.

Great meeting last night. I do have some thoughts/questions that I will post next week. Heading out of town shortly for the weekend, but will be following this thread closely and look forward to participating.

Dave, on the L1 races- are you playing every one of these, and either betting with or against the L1? Or are you only playing those L1 races that point you to a BALO?

I've been studying the strength of this Report in identifying low odds horses to single, as Brian demonstrated last week. I've been trying to define what the Gap in Negative Reynolds numbers should be to consider a Low Odds horse as a single. Right now it's all feel and eye test, but as an example I like to see a race with a single L that has a Neg Rey in the 4th column and a gap to the next group of horses that looks something like 24 to 300, or 8 to 180, or 40 to 168 and so on.

Yesterday I identified 29 races from the 100+ races that I've played live in past two weeks that fit that criteria. By "eye test" alone I see 15 winners in 29 races. When I eliminate 4 races that were 88:7 or 88:8 the sample improves to 15 hits in 25 races and a dollar net of $2.90. Steady diet of winners $4.00 to $7.00. with a few $3.60s and a couple $8.00 and $8.60s. When I layer in the place contenders from my existing handicapping- which is a combination of BH A+/A's and Neal H's with low object odds- those same 25 races yield 18 exacta hits that are very "gettable". Tiny sample, of course, but my gut tells me this is not a fluke. Simultaneously, I've been studying how to isolate the BALOs in similar fashion.

Haven't reached any conclusions on that BALO piece yet, but it appears to me that a recipe of Brian's HSH jujitsu AND the AI is quite powerful. I will continue tracking both singles and BALOs in search of the right recipe and am looking forward to seeing the new L/H column in action in our next meetings!

The original Key to the Mint article is where I first discovered Dave 20 years ago, and it led me to HSH!

Yes indeed! I'm actually ready to take the exacta approach that I outlined recently in a separate thread to the windows. It's performing that well. Can't wait to see what you unveil Thursday, but I'm already quite pleased with where my deT journey seems headed

I'm continuing to see favorable AI output at the warm weather tracks- GP, TAM, TUP and SA. If there is any drop-off at all it seems concentrated at the cold weather tracks- PEN, PRX/PHA, MVR and CT.

Is it possible that in addition to the disrupted trainer schedules that have been discussed, the "winter racing" issues that we have seen for years are in part due to the simple physiological fact that some horses are just like humans and don't respond well to cold temperatures?

Looking forward to this!

Dave, how do you handle a race in which the Green 4 pace object is the same as the red algorithm object? There is no discrepancy with the whales in this case. Does that Green 4 object still serve a role in determining whether a horse is BALO or not?