Hello Dave, Brian or whomever wants to chime in:

I have a few things I would like clarified. I post here (as opposed to having offline conversations) because I feel this might be of value to others.

These questions arise from the video
001: AI LINE, AI BEST HORSE, AI PACE HANDICAPPING

#1 What actually is "AI Line", and from what is it created?
10:15 of video: Dave says
A.

What it does not mean [referring to the example race where a horse is 0.65 AI Odds] is that this horse is worth 3/5 - that you would not bet this horse at 4-1 in the gate based on this alone - it is not that kind of line.

So I take this to mean, the AI line is not an estimate of the true probability of a horse winning the race.
B. [11:00]

Neither is it a prediction of what the [final] odds are going to be - it's too volatile

OK, I get that.
C. [11:08]

What it is - it's what the odds on the horse should be - because the whales drive the betting, effectively it becomes the whales

I am not clear about what Dave means by this.
Is the AI Line an estimate of what the whales are using to estimate the true probability of a horse winning the race?
That is, is it an estimate of the line the whales compare to the post time tote odds, then essentially bet the overlays in some fashion?

#1A What data goes into deTerminator's calculation of the AI Line?
Assuming the whales are not giving Dave any of their own data, there must be some assumptions about what they are doing in the AI calculation?

PS. Dave, if I am not posting this in the right place, please let me know.

@Dave Schwartz @ponyplayer

[Edit: DS] Moved to deTERMINATOR Questions so the world could see it.

One more time today. SAR 25AUG2023
R1 - #16 Global Perspective - $12 show - 1st +$1.20
R2 - #3 Vax - $6 place & $20 show - 1st +$7.00
R7 - #3 Headland - $12 place - 2nd - $1.80
R8 - #1A Olkovskha - $6 show - Scratched
On the day-- +$10.00. Wed, Thu, Fri-- +$37.50. No wagers tomorrow-- going to the OTB.

One more time today. SAR 25AUG2023
R1 - #16 Global Perspective - $12 show
R2 - #3 Vax - $6 place & $20 show
R7 - #3 Headland - $12 place
R8 - #1A Olkovskha - $6 show

r4; 88/91/83/88
Projecting the stretch to be the slowest time/split of the race
r8; 80/83/85/86
Projecting the start to be the slowest time/split of the race

In R#4 I was projecting a somewhat fast pace going from the 1/2 to 3/4 and for R#8 I was projecting a slow race to start and then pick up after

Race 4 was favouring E E/P at the meet but was 50/50 during the week for E and P horses
Since I thought the pace would be fast at the 1/2 way mark of the race I would eliminate the E and P horses which were #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 but I did keep #2 #3 #5 #6 since I thought they would keep their stamina and also showed strong #ers at the end now with the #1 and #1a I would keep them both because they are late closers and figured they would be around in the end so now I have the contenders of #1/1a #2 #3 #5 #6; Now we narrow down our horses to 3 which I would keep #1/#1a for late closing #2 showing strong #ers at the end #3 showing good #ers but throw out the #5 and #6 for having early speed so our new top 4 are 1-1a-2-3 which the #3 won 1a was 2nd and 2 was 3rd!

Race 5 was favouring E and P horses 50/50 for the meet but was 100% of P horses during the week so I would eliminate E horses due to myself projecting the P and S horses to favour due to the slow pace upfront so that eliminates the #2 #4 and #8 out of contention; So now lets narrow down the rest of the field! (not in order) Keeping #7 #1 #6 #3 #10 showing strong #ers later on and we will throw out #9 #8 not showing strong #ers late; Now narrowing our contenders to 4 which we will do with the best #ers late which were #7 #6 #1 and #3 throw out #10 just narrowly getting beat by #3 numbers so our Top 4 are now 1-3-6-7 which #1 won #7 was 2nd #3 was 3rd and #6 was 4th!

I am still learning all of this and sorry for past posting but projecting the pace with my own numbers will soon pay off which it did in both of these races! And showing this as an example not for bragging rights