r4; 88/91/83/88
Projecting the stretch to be the slowest time/split of the race
r8; 80/83/85/86
Projecting the start to be the slowest time/split of the race

In R#4 I was projecting a somewhat fast pace going from the 1/2 to 3/4 and for R#8 I was projecting a slow race to start and then pick up after

Race 4 was favouring E E/P at the meet but was 50/50 during the week for E and P horses
Since I thought the pace would be fast at the 1/2 way mark of the race I would eliminate the E and P horses which were #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 but I did keep #2 #3 #5 #6 since I thought they would keep their stamina and also showed strong #ers at the end now with the #1 and #1a I would keep them both because they are late closers and figured they would be around in the end so now I have the contenders of #1/1a #2 #3 #5 #6; Now we narrow down our horses to 3 which I would keep #1/#1a for late closing #2 showing strong #ers at the end #3 showing good #ers but throw out the #5 and #6 for having early speed so our new top 4 are 1-1a-2-3 which the #3 won 1a was 2nd and 2 was 3rd!

Race 5 was favouring E and P horses 50/50 for the meet but was 100% of P horses during the week so I would eliminate E horses due to myself projecting the P and S horses to favour due to the slow pace upfront so that eliminates the #2 #4 and #8 out of contention; So now lets narrow down the rest of the field! (not in order) Keeping #7 #1 #6 #3 #10 showing strong #ers later on and we will throw out #9 #8 not showing strong #ers late; Now narrowing our contenders to 4 which we will do with the best #ers late which were #7 #6 #1 and #3 throw out #10 just narrowly getting beat by #3 numbers so our Top 4 are now 1-3-6-7 which #1 won #7 was 2nd #3 was 3rd and #6 was 4th!

I am still learning all of this and sorry for past posting but projecting the pace with my own numbers will soon pay off which it did in both of these races! And showing this as an example not for bragging rights

Say Oaklawn's par time for 6 Furlongs Claiming $10k for Filly/mare statebreds is 1:10 flat and your adjustments (example, not the REAL #ers) are 3.5 for f/m and 0.5 for statebreds

Do I add the adjustments to the Par Time or the Actual Time I am computing to get a figure for?
And is it better to use class specific times or the $10k times? — Conley

If you want to know what the PAR FOR THE RACE would be, then:

1. Start with the CLASS PAR for the level (i.e. the par number like 103.4 or whatever)
2. Subtract the Female adj.
3. Subtract the statebred adjustment.
(Don't forget the N2L adjustment if applicable)
This number becomes PAR NUMBER for the race.

However, as I explained in Percentages & Probabilities, a more powerful approach is to look at the mix of horses in the race and build a STRENGTH RATING for the actual race and use that.

This way, the level of the race is determined by the actual HORSES rather than the WRITTEN CONDITIONS of the race.

The PDF is a welcome addition! Thanks Conley. Will look forward to see how things average out over the course of the meet. ( I've only played Oaklawn twice before) — William Zayonce

No problem William!

I am trying to also get some Par Times up for Oaklawn too just 1 quick question for Dave if he can see this:

Say Oaklawn's par time for 6 Furlongs Claiming $10k for Filly/mare statebreds is 1:10 flat and your adjustments (example, not the REAL #ers) are 3.5 for f/m and 0.5 for statebreds

Do I add the adjustments to the Par Time or the Actual Time I am computing to get a figure for?
And is it better to use class specific times or the $10k times?

Just wanting to know these before I start computing the figures

Stay tuned folks

Here are the averages for a few stats that I have been following in my spreadsheet
I do not have the Brisnet PP's for Day #3 but it was also muddy so I will leave it out

I will also be trying to post track bias notes/stats along with each days par times using Dave's Pars too when I get the chance

Abbreviations
PO Post #er
ODD Odds (Line)
PTO Post Time Odds
DSLR Days Since Last Race
QSP Quirin Speed Pts
SFLR Speed Figure LR
SFB2/3 SF Best 2/3
JW% Jockey Win %
TW% Trainer Win %
J/T% Jockey/Trainer Win %
BPP Brisnet PP
CC Current Class
ACL3 Average Class Last 3
EPLR Early Pace Last Race
LPLR Late Pace Last Race
AVGE1 Average E1 Dis/Sur
AVGE2 Average E2 Dis/Sur
AVGLATE Average Late Dis/Sur
TFEP Timeform Early Pace
TFLP Timeform Late Pace
BL1C (race) Beaten Lengths 1st Call
BL2C (race) Beaten Lengths 2nd Call
Win Payout ($2) Win Payout for $2

Let me know if you have any questions or comments