Wow.
Now a 10% takeout instead of 5.26.

Wow is right!

Ah... the cavalry charge!

Love hearing this.
Thank you.

Yes, Brian/@ponyplayer has just accomplished some amazing things for us.

His research has pinpointed some very specific areas where we can now play with certainty.

Thanks to both of you.

Dave

What are numbers?

This is a great question.
It will take me 10 minutes to explain it or an hour to write an explanation.

Please bring this to Wednesday's meeting and I'll clear it up quickly for you.

I’m making the jump to The DeTerminator. Looking forward to learning with you all. I’ve been an HSH user but work kept me from putting the time in. I’m now retired and going to put in the work to learn. — Rick Irvin

You now have access to the DET User's group.

Welcome aboard!

Way to go, Ram!

This is the right one!

Wouldn't that severely limit your past history data to a very small sample size? — Tim Romero

Yes.
Which would you prefer... LESS and RIGHT or MORE but WRONG?

LOL - A well-known quandary for us data guys.

Is anyone around who can share about the 90% Confidence Interval stuff?

I added the ability to use different tie break factors for FTS and PrevStarters.

Get v1.1191.

We'll be demoing this one tonight.

In our system, we have something called "The Ask."

Just imagine that only the G and B races should really count.

What is an ELO system?? — ponyplayer

A relative rating system - think Chess Federation ratings.
(i.e. who you beat or lose to matters)

I have been working on an ELO based system for horse racing and wondering if anyone has done something similar and what was your experience with the system. I get a decent return but not fully profitable based on betting only one horse per race. What are others seeing? — Tim Romero

What a great first post!

Welcome.

I think the biggest challenge you face is that racing is far different than (say) chess because (almost) every chess player in (almost) every game is TRULY TRYING.

There needs to be a mechanism for lightening (or removing completely) races where a given horse was unsuited for some/any reason - including being off form.

This makes it difficult to maintain.

Not that many L's since most of the low odds horses qualify as d's and it's a narrow window. So the pool size for L's is low as expected.
But, as you can see, 44% winners with an AI Line of <=1.99.
56% winners with an AI Line of >=2.00, but there's a lot of horses in these pools.

BALO's: AI Assist set to Value Method: 0 and Hit Rate Importance: 100.
The d and/or L horses with NO Rank 1's. Found 5 of these. The d and/or L horses with ONLY one (1) Rank 1. Found 3 of these. None of these 8 horses won. Have seen a few more of these since testing and none of them won. Also, in short 5-6 horse fields, as expected, these d's and L's finish 2nd quite often. — Jim Pommier

This deserves a BIG WOW.

Guys, I am ill.
Doubt that I will be up to a workshop in the morning.

The pre-release of DET v2-The AI Assistant is in your DropBox now.

I've reached out to Brian and I assume he'll schedule a workshop for the a.m. tomorrow.

A little more...

You can begin with whatever you are doing now.

THEN, before you pull the trigger you can (essentially) ASK who of YOUR horses the AI ASSISTANT likes.

And THE ANSWER can be based upon WHATEVER YOU WANT...
*HIT RATE
*VALUE
or (literally)
*MIX of hit rate and value.

You can set the mix!

You can even do FTS separately.
Or look at low odds horses and leave out high odds horses.
Or concentrate on Pace-E vs Pace-LP and sort out the stretch run.

Brian's right:
It IS mind blowing.

Nice post, Brian.

Update on Mother’s Day morning.

Brian and Jimmy got their upgrade yesterday, and will get another one sometime today.

I expect there will be one more upgrade after that (likely by Monday evening).

At that point, they will be testing for small bugs as we ready for release.

I can't wait to see it and try it out!! — Jim Pommier

You being the other driving force around here, you'll have it just as soon as I get past a cosmetic sorting bug.

I expect that everyone will have it within about 10 days or so.