Comments
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Chaos ratingPS: It doesn't have to be about the end result of your handicapping.
It can literally be about a question you have.
Example: "Do Non-BALO Mag1s with LATE running styles do worse than those with EARLY Running Styles?"
Because they are LOW ODDS it will not take a lot of races for you to test this - maybe just 200 to get a good idea. -
Chaos rating
:cheer: :cheer:
This is the kind of stuff that gives you CLARITY about what works and what doesn't.
I suggest that guys keep what I call a Decision Notebook.
1. You create a page and at the top of the page you write a meaningful question.
2. For example, "How good am I at predicting who will be on the lead at the 1st call?"
3. You line the page with columns such as "My 1st Call," "Actual 1st Call"
4. After the charts come in, you circle the horses under "My 1st Call" who are also in the "Actual" column.
5. At the bottom of the page you put your scores and percents.
Over the decades I've worked with maybe 10 guys who actually did this for any length of time. Pretty close to all of them who stuck with it improved their results.
Most guys quit by about the 10th race because they didn't like seeing the reality of their numbers.
REALITY IS KING! -
Chaos ratingNo, that's the only way.
This is mostly for your clarity...
remember, Your CORE plus TWO Flips max.
______________
However, you can view this as BALO+CHAOS.
Thus, you now have the following outcomes possible from the ONE Flip:
__________________________________BALO + CHAOS FLIP _________________ BALO CHAOS 0 NO NO 1 NO YES 3 YES NO 4 YES YES
See how there are FOUR STATES?
You need a CLEAR STRATEGY for each one!
This is the key to GETTING CLARITY in your handicapping. -
Preaque Isle (PID) & Hastings (HST) - Post TimesStuff changes all the time.
When we get the tote in - probably 2 weeks - we'll pick that up automatically. -
InstallYou copied the HSH Downloader along with the entire folder.
Only thing left is the shortcuts.
1. Open DET.
2. File Menu>>> Desktop Shortcuts
3. Exit DET.
4. Find your desktop.
6. Find the 5 shortcuts and drag them into a clump.
7. Create a new folder on the desktop.
>> Right-click the desktop.
>> Select "New" from the menu.
>> Then select Folder.
After the folder is created...
8. Select the 5 shortcuts (you can do them one at a time)
9. LEFT-Drag them into or on top of the new folder.
10. Test
DONE! -
InstallLet me make it easier for you.
Copy the _ deTERMINATOR folder from one machine to another.
That's all you need to do. -
Late & Gate Scratches1. Races List
2. Entries
3. Scratch the horse(s)
4. Mark race for Recalc
5. Close Entries
6. Close Race List
7. Recalc button (on toolbar)
8. Close the Race Window for that race. (Could have done this fist)
9. Reopen race so that the AI may handicap again. -
Tested the AI and it hits BIG!After our meeting I wanted to play the end of CBY. I used my own handicapping process, first handicapping the last 3 races. The first race I did not have the 3 but OWhales reports under Reynolds had pointed out the 3. Same stuff Dave was working with us today and I added it. When I went to the 7th race I got an error message that AI declines this race and noticed it was a chaos 5 race so I took all there. The last race had a BALO the #1 horse but I played it anyway, but it lost and I hit with the #2. I bet $1 pic3 and hit a 50/1 with that #3 horse in the 1st leg. In the 2nd leg the #11 won at 35/1 over the #2 in the last race at 5/2. The pic3 paid $15,201.70[/quote]
Both wonderful and amazing.
Way to go, Dave R! — Dave R -
Selections groupStart with how you want to bet, how many contenders you want, and an understanding of the scope of play.
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Track NotesIf I still have my Christmas lights up from last year, does
that count as almost Christmas this year?
Asking for a friend. — ponyplayer
Definitely too soon.
LOL -
Selections groupI'd like to suggest that this is NOT the time for you guys to be changing what you are doing.
Add this little mantra - just for the next week or so:
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Track NotesOk is there anything under the hood that address track notes? I feel that these are vital to handicapping. For example, if a horse is steadied it can majorly affect their time, speed, results etc.? — Dave R
Nothing yet but it is on the agenda.
There will be because a couple of the pros really use them - and I know you do as well.
And not just tracks, but races, horses, trainers, jockeys, trips, etc.
Because it is not code that is already written, it is a pretty big project that is not really CORE FUNCTIONALITY for almost everyone.
Notes is on what I am calling "The Christmas List." -
Working Groups to learn deTerminatorI've got an idea!
Let's do a quick meeting TONIGHT at 7pm pacific time!
(It will not be recorded.)
Topic: Moving to the Winners' Circle
Time: Jun 27, 2024 07:00 PM Pacific Time (US and Canada)
Join Zoom Meeting
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84572790083?pwd=NQEb9xafQFU5Y760GbKaxif6e0EYIQ.1
Meeting ID: 845 7279 0083
Passcode: 660196 -
Working Groups to learn deTerminatorWednesday evening is a good option for me. If not, Monday or Thursday. I don't have a preference on what the number limit should be for beta release...deferring to Dave on that. — Atakante
I think I'll leave you guys alone to organize a bit.
My opinion would be that you match up by approaches, goals, strategies.
For example, a tourney player sees the world different than a 2-horses per race win bettor.
But the conversation that @ponyplayer started was a great idea.
(Thanks, Brian.)
Dave Schwartz
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