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ponyplayer
112Yes, we are naming our wagers now. :cool:
On Saturday morning, Neal gave us an excellent betting strategy
as we are going forward with deTerminator. I know Dave will
provide many more, but this is a start.
Here goes "The Neal":
1. Make sure you are on the AI BH screen. #2 the F grade horse
must be a BALO (this one wasn't and he won). Make sure
yours is!!
2. Rank and magnitude on your horse must be a 1-1 (sometimes
you can go with 2-2 if the F horse is a BALO and very weak on reports)
CAUTION! Make sure your horse is strong on reports.
3. Your horse must be an A+ or at minimum an A.
4. You must have tote odds loaded. The horse must be bet
down from AI odds. Your main bet is to WIN. Morning line odds
do not matter. Use the F horse in 2nd position if you bet an exacta
and use other A+ horses that are bet down.
5. Long odds A+ horses clunk up for show a lot (see purple arrows)
and often even 2nd. Make sure you use all the A+ horses underneath
if you can - or as many as you can.
If the 2 horse was a BALO, the bet would be on the #1.
Patience is the key. Some days there are many more than others.
Wait for the situation to present itself and pounce!!
Watch for Chaos 5 races. This strategy is not for them.
Did I miss anything, Neal?? -
Dave Schwartz
364 -
Neal Freedman
14Thanks, guys. The strategy as outlined by ponyplayer accurately captures the spirit and essence of the strategy. A couple of quick fine points:
1. Although a BALO is highly preferred, it is not absolutely necessary. Depending on the other factors (tote, rank and margin, and grade) I will consider eliminating a 1 1 horse with a grade of F or D-.
2. I will also (again, depending on the factors cited above) sometimes consider betting an A- horse that is betting.
After a while you will get a feel for these and other fine points.
Hope this helps and feel free to ask any questions. -
Dave Schwartz
364Thanks, guys. The strategy as outlined by ponyplayer accurately captures the spirit and essence of the strategy. A couple of quick fine points: — Neal Freedman
This is fantastic!
You've captured the very essence of the source of The Situational Advantage.
__________________
This thread is too important to not share with the world. -
Red Knave
12This is an interesting race for a couple of reasons.
It shows the value of looking for a BALO and what to do if the high percentage horse(s) is not a BALO. I require a minimum of 3 and a maximum of 4 contenders. In this race I was only able to find 3. I used the collective speed/collective power lists (click the 'Deep' button to see them) and the 4 horse, Streaking Grey, fit the bill as a 4th contender. The high percentage horse wins at 3/5 and the 4 is second at 20-1and the exactor pays $34.
I'm coming around to the BALO concept. If a top pct horse is a BALO I may still take it on top over my other contenders if it's real odds make it betable. Mostly, though, I make them place horses only.
In this race, I took the legit nonBALO high pct horse, #2, with 3 others at $2 each and then reverse them over the high pct horse at $1.
The lowest paying exactor, 2 over 8, was paying $10 so I went with it. I'll get better at betting eventually. :wink:Aug 18, 2024 2:19 PM Bet Gulfstream, Race 4, $1.00 EXA 4,5,8 / 2 $3.00 Aug 18, 2024 2:19 PM Bet Gulfstream, Race 4, $2.00 EXA 2 / 4,5,8 $34.10 $6.00
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Red Knave
12Also, the #1, Queen Daymar, is rank 1, magnitude 1, yet is a grade A+ ? That made no sense. I did not have her as a contender. I use the 0Whales report plus 'Ira's object' (posted elsewhere in this forum) and select Reynolds2 horses that have a value of 1 or 2 as contenders.
I realize that the post was not about this particular horse but I just wanted to be thorough. -
Tom Atwater
7
Neal, when are you recording tote odds, given that they change so much after post time these days?
[edit: DS] Adding a ping of @Neal Freedman so he'll more likely see it. -
ponyplayer
112Tom =
Odds do change dramatically after the gates open.
Good thing is you use the AI Line to see where the odds SHOULD go.
After you handicap a couple hundred races you will recognize which
horses will be well bet at the bell and which won't.
You won't see near as much odds variation at the large tracks than
you see on the smaller tracks. A few weeks f experience and it will become
clear.
Tough to see now, but you'll pick it up real fast. -
Neal Freedman
14Agree with everything that ponyplayer said above. Another tactic is concentrating (at lease initially) on horses that are bet way down from their AI line. For these horses then try including additional factors such as rank and margin and grade (I've found that horses in the "A" range tend to do well). As you get better with experience you will come up with other ideas, broadening and improving your approach.
Hope this helps. -
Dave Schwartz
364Agree with everything that ponyplayer said above. Another tactic is concentrating (at lease initially) on horses that are bet way down from their AI line. For these horses then try including additional factors such as rank and margin and grade (I've found that horses in the "A" range tend to do well). As you get better with experience you will come up with other ideas, broadening and improving your approach. — Neal Freedman
I see it the same way as both you & @ponyplayer.
What the AI Line gives us is a standard to measure the gate odds (or whenever) against. -
ponyplayer
112REMEMBER = The NEAL needs to be a minimum of +10
or
50% bet down from the AI line.
I think I got that right.
@Neal Freedman correct me if I am wrong.
I bow to your greatness!! -
Neal Freedman
14Not sure about the 50% bet down (although I'll research it now that you've mentioned it). Agree that the +10 is solid.
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Tom Atwater
7I have a question @Neal Freedman...
Is this primarily intended to measure how much insiders (not including whales) are betting a horse down? -
Neal Freedman
14I see it mainly as a way of identifying that "somebody (whale or not) might know something and therefore I have to consider the horse.
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Neal Freedman
14Also keep in mind that about two-thirds of winners are bet down (admittedly from the morning line, not the AI line).
Hope this helps. -
Gillycapper
25The issue I have is you think you are betting a 10+ horse but after the gate opens its +1. Value moved to another horse. 2/3 of the winners are bet down after the gate opens. -
Tom Atwater
7
I see it mainly as a way of identifying that "somebody (whale or not) might know something and therefore I have to consider the horse
Ok, fair enough, but I don't think it's the whales, since Dave says they bet it all when they are loading in the gate.
To me it's mostly the horsemen's money, though I guess some is from sharp handicappers.
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