I just finished the most important section in the entire program.

This is where the user gets to enter THEIR handicapping for each horse.

DeTERMINATOR is designed to be an INTERACTIVE ADVISOR in the handicapping process. That means you must be able to enter your own opinions, compare them to the AI, and even COLLABORATE with the AI.

Well, maybe "finished" is the wrong word because I will be writing collaboration functions for several more days.

But getting the data in was really a big deal.

Think of it this way... Calculations depend upon probabilities. But the only handicappers I know of who actually work with probabilities are those using a very rigid tool that says, "Horse #1 is 27%."

Get this...
Imagine you have an 8-horse field.
You have strong opinions about the 1,2 and 3 so you use the ODDS column:
1: 2.0/1
2: 3.0 /1
3: 2.5/1

You think the 4 & 5 are like 4th choices, so you use the CHOICE column.
4: 4
5: 4
(Note: If you entered actual odds for a horse, it will not use the CHOICE column. Instead, it locks your odds in.)

You think everyone else is just a crazy longshot, so you leave the 6,7,8 blank. The engine will take care of those.

That's how you get your picks in.
Then the engine converts the ODDS and CHOICES to percentages.

Then the fun starts.

BTW, CHOICES column goes from 1 to 5, but you can also enter an "8."
if you enter an "8" in the CHOICE it has the AI generate the percentage for that horse based upon what the public opinion SHOULD BE based upon the training process.

Remember that any horse you enter odds for will never change. Only the others will change - based upon the strengths you entered.

There are more tools.

I'm really doing well with it.
Hope to start demos by the end of the month.

The idea is to make it SIMPLER instead of more complex.
(BTW, nobody actually USES 4,000 factors, right? Or even 400.)

You accomplish that by constantly working to slim down your data set.

First, you have to actually HAVE a data set.

No.
While winning margin does make a small difference, it is not what people would expect.

Well, perhaps I should ask what you'd expect it to mean first.
LOL

I don't teach coding.
But I am willing to discuss strategy for accomplishing what you have in mind.

One of my favorite movies.
Lancey Howard!
vs
The Kid

Can't comment more specifically.

1. Did the mechanic after several hours of practice figure out how to arrange the cards into the shoe?
Not knowing exactly how you would play each hand-- hit(s), hold(s), split(s), etc-- seems impossible. — Jim Pommier

It would be impossible - unless it was a completely stacked deck. That's known as a "Cold Deck" in the vernacular, and demands a floor man be in on it. (Somebody has to switch the previously prepared deck in and then fake the shuffle.)

But, no. That's not how it is done.

He arranges sequences of cards that wind up serving his purpose (i.e. win or lose).

BTW, must be a face-up game.

It's all in how you pick the cards up.
Once he has a sequence built into the discards, you top the section off with a "signal sequence." Think of something like Ace of Spades, King of Hearts, Jack of diamonds. (A little obvious - only to illustrate a point.)

BTW, I could never do this myself. When the guy showed me I was shocked.

A common way of arranging the cards would be like putting together 2-card combinations that add up to 10 or 11. Thus, once the sequence is live, when you see an "8" you know that the next card is likely to be a 2 or 3. When you see a "7" it is reasonable to expect a 4 next.

So, if you need a small card to prevent breaking, you hold that next small card on top until it's your turn.

Again, this guy was really masterful. This would be above literally all but a half-dozen or so dealers in Las Vegas in that era. (Of which, I knew 2.)

2. Was he taking 1 card from the shoe each time or was he able to slide out 2 with just the one hand? Again, watching the shoe closely seems it would be easy to see more than 1 card coming out of the shoe. — Jim Pommier

Dealing seconds out of a shoe is not difficult. The difficult part is knowing what the top card is so that you have a reason to store it. See #1.

Thank you.
I hope 2024 goes into your record book as the BEST YEAR EVER.

I was just curious Dave, if you were updating this for 2024, otherwise the 2022 version, does it come with all the updated evaluations?.

No Updates.
It is very labor intensive, so perhaps every 8-10 years.

Secondly, On another part of the blog here, I had asked when or hope to release the determinator.

Still working hard on it.
There is an old saying: "Being a programmer means never having to say you're finished."

Always seems to be a month away.
Getting close to demo time.
Remember that the AI is completely written.

Thirdly, Will it allow for the user to have input or say in any of the handicapping process?

Absolutely!
In fact, there is far more than there is in HSH.

Also, all 3,000+ factors are ranks, too.

It is not designed as a black box, although that's what a few people want.

It is designed to give you a true INFORMATIONAL ADVANTAGE.
That is, information that nobody has - not even the whales.

For example, consider Quirin's Early Speed Points.
Across all races, the top-ranked ES horse runs within a length of the lead at the first call 56.4% of the time.

I tasked the AI to create a new factor to better that. It considered 800 BILLION combinations and combined 2 factors together that raised that to 65%!

It added roughly 75 new factors to the system. I've only vetted a few because it is a lot of work. Those new factors all need to be vetted and named. So, for the first few months after release, there will be factor upgrades.

I see it as two different steps.

1. Build TRACK pars.
That is, how fast is the TRACK across usable class levels?

2. Build Class Levels
That is, what speed does a class level usually run two across all usable distances?

One THINKS it is only about #1 but the two work together.

As your pars improve, so will your class levels.
Then your class levels improve your pars.

If you are trying to build a class par for each class/distance, it simply doesn't work.

Here's a special code for purchasing HSH that will get you 75% off thru 12/24.

Chr23-HSH

Direct Link to HSH in the Pace Makes the Race store.

Download.
I'd never use a dongle.

They expect it to indicate to the world that they have knowledge.

A function of field size and perhaps the style of track in terms of angle, i.e. like Hastings in B.C. is like a bull ring. — Charles Lucas

Surprisingly, not a function of field size except with the tiny tracks (i.e. TIL, SAL, etc.)

But at those tracks, top trainers dominate so strongly that everything points to them anyway (i.e. speed, top jockeys, pedigree, etc.)

Yes, pedigree.
It's a sleeper factor I found and it matters in cheap claimers for OLDER horses!.

Thank you for the rewrite.
__________________
I'd definitely be in Python, if I were I not writing commercial software.
It's an excellent FREE tool with a lot of FREE resources.
The stumbling block for me is that there is no real way to protect the software or the code.

I'd never consider Java. Just too slow.
I do all my coding in a language called Clarion. I've been using the language since 1993.

It is a 4GL, and is very expensive. The core language is a couple of Thousand dollars and the 3rd-party libraries bring the tab to around $6k.
__________________
If you are not enamored to BIG DATA, I would suggest that you learn Excel.

• I mean, really learn.
• Take a simple online course that gets you up to speed.
• Figure out what you to accomplish.
• The hard part is getting data in and populating other sheets within the file.
• Take another course when you need to learn something.

__________________
HSH does not allow you to build custom databases. It does, however, allow you to FILTER the database about 15 ways from Sunday. (That 16th way will be the one you want.)

There are roughly 3,800 factors for every horse, so there is a lot there.
But it is a very intense program.
Very flexible, but not the same as writing code.
__________________
Finally, we get to the good stuff!


I really tried to use BRIS as an import but the data just isn't robust enough. Plus, the speed, pace and class numbers are just not as good as what I'm used to.

Then, of course, there is the issue of the way they want to compensate the developer. LOL

But let's move on from all that.
__________________
Yes, I credited my wife in my software for the first time.

She's been my whiteboard partner for so almost 3 decades. But in the last 2 or 3 years, I have seen Beth's intellect just go ballistic! (There is a logical reason for that's for another day.)

While Beth does not write code, she actually understands my whiteboarding. As I explain things to her, I am working through issues and problems - usually starting on a very base level.

She actually helped me design the Artificial Intelligence within the software.
__________________
About the deTerminator...
It Determinates. LOL

It is not about picks... although it does make good ones.

It's real goal is to provide something that everybody wishes they had but nobody actually has:
an INFORMATIONAL ADVANTAGE

It does this by allowing the user to have information:

• Nobody else has (by inventing its own factors).
• The whales wouldn't use (because it doesn't fit their approach).
• Produces a killer artificial morning line.
• Calibrates who the whales are likely to be.

It's coming and it will rock the world.

Intro price will be $79 per month plus $100 per month to HDW for unlimited data.

Yes, there are some pedigree stats.

However, one of the best quotes I've ever heard about pedigree came from Jim Cramer of HDW.

"I've never found a single pedigree factor that performs as well as the morning line."

Our stats would indicate that to be true.

I'm sorry, but that post is just indecipherable to me.

Perhaps you'd consider some paragraphs?

I extrapolate the class levels for every distance.

Reasoning:
Obviously, they can't be built distance-by-distance for each class because there just aren't enough races.

Example: A track might run 30 class levels across 14 distances. Some class levels will never run some distances.


There are some kinds of races that I do not offer class level info for.
Examples

• Starter Races
• Optional Claiming

Reasoning:
These races are just all over the place.

Starter races are very dependent upon the horses on the grounds this year and they are generally far different than last year.

OC races come in 2 extreme varieties:

• Lots of horses entered for a tag
• Lots of horses NOT entered for a tag

Secondly, I realize that you do not do things for free, I was curious how much would you charge me create a daily racing form past performance template from the daily racing form and a brisnet pp template. It is for my own recreation ..just

Chuck (remember I am the guy struggling not working) ... P.S.When do you plan on releasing your new software

I get a few requests like that every year.
You just have no idea the magnitude of effort involved.

Not so long ago I fellow wrote to me asking the same question, offering me $500.

Even adding a zero to that is not enough to make it worth my effort.