So, how do we become profitable then — Bill Madsen

An easy answer does not exist.

And if it did, I think most players would resist because it will necessitate a change in what they're doing.

If there's anything I know about horse players it is that they like what they're doing - even if it isn't serving them well.

That's not so terrible if they're really profitable. — Bill Madsen

Just imagine that you have to actually watch EVERY SINGLE RACE to pull the trigger.

But certainly some go off at higher prices. — Bill Madsen

Yes.
And they become profitable at around 11/1 (as I recall).
Across all races, at all tracks, you'd find about 3-4 bets per day.

Surely that can be turned into profit somehow? — Bill Madsen

All such factors - and others that are high level - correlate so closely with the tote board that it makes it almost impossible to profit from them directly.

In fact, one would do better tossing such horses.
Except that they will will win crushing percentage of races.

In Percentages & Probabilities 2022 I showed how those factors could be used for profit but not in the conventional way.

Interesting, Dave. What is PSR? I don't necessarily mean specifically, but is that a speed number of some sort? — RanchWest

PSR is a proprietary rating from Handicapper's Data Warehouse (HDW). It closely resembles BRIS' Prime Power rating.

We have 3 such ratings, all similar, yet different.
All 3 get 30-32% winners on the top-ranked horse in each race.
(Which really is similar to BRIS' number.)

Lack of interest.

There were 2 men involved. Each spent less than two years in prison. They were ruled off as undesirable so they never returned to the track. — Tony Kofalt

That is as it should have been.

Good real life post.

2 Questions
1. How much time did your friends serve?

2. Did they go back to racing?

You think that's funny... when he finally told the truth, that meant he had committed perjury, which is a felony. — RanchWest

Even funnier.

The fog incident was in a race with such a low purse that the jockey could not be charged with a felony. — RanchWest

LOL
That's funny.

The most infamous incident at Delta was the "fog jockey" incident. — RanchWest

I remember that!

Another set of stats that might be ripe is workouts. Is there a difference between when the horses win and lose? Does the trainer work the horses long or short? Any difference for distances or surfaces? Fast or slow? Frequency? Does the typical layoff after a race disclose anything? Does the trainer have access to a private training facility? — RanchWest

I love stats that nobody else has.

Personally, I like to concentrate of performance stats.
That is, things like: "How does this trainer perform with horses who..."
Rank 1st for speed rating in their last race?
(or 2nd,3rd,FrontHalf,RearHalf)

• Best of Last 2 Races?
• Best of Last 3 Races?
• Best 2 of Last 3 Races?

That worked.

You did not share what you think you shared.
Download it yourself and see.

Theoretically, yes.
The standard approach for a whale group is to lose 3.5% and make it up on rebates.
I'm not suggesting that his approach provides enough handle for whaledom, but it should work providing it is profitable and remains such.

Because his selections (logically) are low-odds...

• He can bet a lot of money if he chooses to ramp up.
• It will take only 1,000 bets or so to verify that the system is valid.
• The next statistical challenge would be some sort of seasonality.
  (i.e. the sample is from RECENT history. Will it work in August?)

If I had such a system in my arsenal, I would use a mild chase-the-money strategy to level out the fluctuations and simply grind out a profit.
This assumes I actually desired to be a 4-day-a-week player - i.e. have a job.

Note that I suggested beginning with a premise and then testing that premise. That avoids, in part, the backfitting issue. Of course, as you suggested, you still have to forward test because it can still regress. — RanchWest

Of course. But you guys aren't normal players. LOL

@RanchWest & @Steven but you are both smart guys, who knew all of that above.

IMHO, collaboration between guys like you two really makes a difference. Not only can you spread the work, but you can also share ideas. And the more diverse the collaborators, the more powerful the potential outcome.

@Steven & @RanchWest,

It's all in what one can prove - to one degree or another.

Meaning:
Spot plays are generally built on a backfit.
Most guys look at a database and build a set of rules that worked in the past.
These rules worked because they were contrived based upon history.

Math Guy says: "That's when the testing needs to begin."
Handicapper says: "Huh? But I already proved that it works."
Math Guy says: "No, you proved it WORKED IN THE PAST. Now you must test against a new sample going forward."
Handicapper says: "But I don't have another sample."
Math Guy says: "Then you CAN'T PROVE anything."
Handicapper says: "Oh."

Later...
Handicapper says: "Why didn't it work?"

I think this is anecdotal but I've always heard that on any given day, 95% of the people at the track lose — Steven

I think that more people have winning days - maybe as high as 15% of REGULAR PLAYERS. It very much depends upon individual strategies.

But this is all anecdotal. I could be far off on all of it.

And yes, back to the subject of this thread, they are two different concepts. I think this is anecdotal but I've always heard that on any given day, 95% of the people at the track lose and of that remaining 5%, about 3% (or maybe even 4%) are only winners for that day, the remaining 2% (or 1%) are the only long term winners. So to beat the game, you have to be in the top 1% - 2% of the people there at the track. — Steven

My estimate is 4 out of every thousand.