I probably said something about being more partial to median than average. Average can easily be skewed by a few outliers. — RanchWest
I stumbled on a Thanksgiving 2012(?) episode of Dave's "How to Improve your Game", yesterday. It was 90 minutes of handicapping wisdom with only an occasional DS commercial (you know how he is). One of the concepts that wowed me was the 90% Confidence Interval for speed figures (or any metric). Are you familiar with it or use it? Is it still viable 10 years later? If it is I will try to validate it on my program later today. No matter how good an idea seems on the surface I ALWAYS have to test it myself. — Biniak
You won't be sorry, I forgot just how many pages of data it contains, but if I'm not mistaken there is over 150 pages. — Jim Parker
Dave, in the materials, the tables can get them with all the ranked pace factors. — Bill T
100 Morning Line 62 PSR (like BRIS Prime Power) 38 Cramer Power (like BRIS Prime Power) 24 RTG (like BRIS Prime Power) 15 Trainer wins at the track last 365 days 9 Composite Final Time (hi-level speed rating)
Is this the average of the best three (3) in the race? Seems like I heard this in a workshop but I don't remember it exactly. — Steven
Say Oaklawn's par time for 6 Furlongs Claiming $10k for Filly/mare statebreds is 1:10 flat and your adjustments (example, not the REAL #ers) are 3.5 for f/m and 0.5 for statebreds
Do I add the adjustments to the Par Time or the Actual Time I am computing to get a figure for?
And is it better to use class specific times or the $10k times? — Conley
I'm not sure I'm understanding "subsets". Are we looking at races where the best early speed number is 7-8, and then races where best early speed number is 5-6, and then races where best early speed number is 3-4 and we're doing this to see if 7-8 races produce more winnners (or more money) than 5-6 races? — Steven
Can you break it down to where the top horse is 5 or 6 ? Then break that down to those with 5 or 6 which also have a 4 point edge? — William Zayonce