Special note:
This was written a LONG TIME AGO.

Back when you could actually use the tote board. - I'd guess sometime in the 1990s.

Ironically, just today - and I do mean TODAY, February 14, 2025 - I recorded the deTERMINATOR version of this.

@ponyplayer had no idea I was recording such a video.

Very astute

DET removes the issue of segmentation of races.

Essentially, after DET has done its work, the races have been normalized to reflect that.

This is a very difficult thing for players to adjust to because they think there is more to do.

The role of the player is different.

Does this make sense? — Chuck

You have described many potential subsets, leading to many permutations of data.

1. Regression or progression in speed ratings - i.e. form cycle
2. Considering...
age
number of starts
class changes
trainers class management

This is a very complex study.

Respectfully, because speed ratings are so far down on the MAKE-A-DIFFERENCE-IN-PROFITABILITY LIST, I doubt that anything of value would be found.

Today's racing environment is just far different and BEING COMPETITIVE TODAY demands a far different way of looking at things.

I don't see KD in the track list - is that intentional? — Tom Atwater

KD is a "circuit 0" track. That is, it is a very small or non-standard track.

Most people would not want to include circ0 because it would skew the data.

@PickMaster
I'm confused.

Ah... Favorites.


Also, look at your posts. (Edit one)
I wrapped them in "code" tags.

@Jim Pommier & @PickMaster

You have both been added to the research group.

I don't agree with his betting strategies-- "tossing the 2nd and 3rd choices", "eliminate the 2nd and 3rd choices from the place slot" and "make a win bet on the 3rd choice". Seems very rigid. Maybe it's simply suggestions. — Jim Pommier

And I agree with your position as well.

I used to do well at that track but in the recent few years it fell off my list.

Besides, there are just so many races to choose from in my 3 hours + one race.

To be clear... if the state allows them to have a casino without a race track, then the race track is history.

Very ugly.

Ryan Pip has a newsletter about handicapping. https://substack.com/@ryanpip — Mark

Thanks, Mark.

Who is Ryan Pip?

@Jim Pommier,
100%.
In addition, when one keeps a track profile, they must be aware that the mix of running styles in a given race is a huge factor.

For example, a Quirin ES Points race that had 8877 is far different than a race with 5433.

This forces one to keep multiple models.

Would your experience support that?

How would you know there is a PACE bias?

Are you keeping a model?

Is it possible that in addition to the disrupted trainer schedules that have been discussed, the "winter racing" issues that we have seen for years are in part due to the simple physiological fact that some horses are just like humans and don't respond well to cold temperatures? — Jeff Capper

Of course!

But you had me at:

I'm continuing to see favorable AI output at the warm weather tracks- GP, TAM, TUP and SA. — Jeff Capper

Brian got another update today!

Hoping for another on Thursday morning.

4:30pm pacific time

It really is looking like way beyond what I had hoped for.

Thanks, Brian

I'll find some docs for you.
If you have Percentages & Probabilities they're all explained in there.

I tested 2 more segments of races with similar results but the QUALs were 45% wins and almost all short prices.

Wound up with a $Net of $1.97 - not bad as a hedge.

Did not track the losers but it was quite obvious that they were a huge losing proposition.

Unlike the 1st sample, the ratio of plays was split with about 35% (qualified) and 65% (BALO). Many of the BALO races contained TWO horses. In fact, that was a big reason for the qualification.

This is the kind of research that comes from the public session we did yesterday - it often turns into a giant whiteboard session which leads to new ideas for research.
____________________________
In yesterday's video (not rendered yet) I mentioned what it takes to join the research group.

There are 3 requirements:
1. Own HSH with a substantial database
OR
1. Have a mind for research that you are willing to share with the group.

2. Be willing to share what you know, etc. with the group.

3. Be a PROLIFIC PUBLIC POSTER who is committed to growing our community of horse bettors.
_________________________________

Respectfully, if your goal is to simply improve your own play, without the community aspect, you do not fit the requirements.

If you are such a person please reach out privately so we can figure out how to get you onboard.