Very deep questions.

Not simple enough to answer in writing.

We'll have to discuss this in a meeting.
(Also, some will likely be proprietary.)

The video is available in the above post.

I believe the Grades (A+, D, etc.) were initially portrayed as ways to find who the whales are likely to bet on (mainly A+ and As) but I'm curious to find if anyone here really rely on those for their handicapping. It's still not clear to me what/how they contribute as opposed to say Magnitude and Rank. Any responses appreciated... — Atakante

Short version from my POV:
First, Grades are derived from pure math.

As Tom said, it is always the payoff from the "selected odds" times the hit rate.

The correct formula is (Odds x 2 +2) x Pct = $net.
"Grade" is also as Tom said; a function of the $net.
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In a perfect world, All we'd need is to bet all the A+ horses and retire to wherever we want that has an internet connection.

Here's the problem:
$Net is a function of odds x hit rate and NEITHER OF THOSE IS ACCURATE!

Still, it is a good estimate of both probability and profit, but... honestly, it takes more.

BTW, Optimum% is probably a better measuring stick in the sense that you'd be better off betting more on a low odds A+ than a high odds A+.

While there is a time and a place for just using Grade, $Net, or Opt%, the game isn't that simple.

There are complications to the entire picture. At this morning's live play session we discussed a process that I call "Using Boxes" to build systems. In the coming days I will try to find time to expand on it.

Although this is not a great form - I'm sure many of us could do better...

Here it is if someone wants it to print out.

There's a potentially excellent thread going on "under the hood" that I decided should "have the hood open."

To that end, I've moved it where it can be seen.

Direct Link to that thread

↪Neal Freedman Hello Neal. I've been working on a strategy similar to Ram. First I have one (1) report that I use to pick contenders. Then in the Final Step I meld the two (2) Green "3" and "4" AI pacelines. For Turf and Tapeta, I meld a little different. Under GENRES I've been using ODS 63 with an Obj Wgt of "46". 46 will elevate a horse in this object versus using 50 or higher.
I think the key is being consistent, especially with the initial Prime AI melding. Dirt, sprints, routes, turf, track specific-- be consistent with what you use. I've found using the two (2) Green "3" and "4" AI pacelines works pretty well for dirt races. — Jim Pommier

This is the stuff that makes Super Stars!
Thank you!
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Just a heads up... make sure that you track the Genres by Object Name instead of numbers because the numbers are regenerated alphabetically as new genres are added.
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I'd like to describe what you are doing with BOXES.

You'll want to make your own, but here's a starting point.


This is meant to be a simple worksheet with 4 races per page.

• The top set is the explanation.
• There are 4 COMPONENTS to your approach, numbered 1 thru 4.
• "OOP" stands for "Order of Preference."

• The 2nd set is a race that you won.
• After the race is over, you use a highlighter to mark the winning horse.
• The Fail Box contains a GREEN 0 to indicate that none of the COMPONENTS failed.

• The 3rd set is a race that you lost.
• After the race is over, you use a highlighter to mark the winning horse - GREEN to indicate the COMPONENT that had the winner, and RED to indicate that the COMPONENT FAILED.
• The Fail Box contains a RED 3 to indicate the precise COMPONENT THAT FAILED.

Surprisingly, it was only the ones that actually had big payoffs, as I recall. LOL

Did you check out the Chaos5 races with A+ horses on Friday?

(I only looked at Friday.)

Just to be clear... Last November's races were not included in the training set. The AI was trained during the summer and for Graded races I went all the way back to 2013.

Must be some good things! — Mark

Truly.
They're working on how to win and I'm working on documentation.

Where's everyone at? — Mark

Lots going on under the hood.

Dave Schwartz, some questions for you:
What do you consider deTerminator's best feature (AI Line, AI Best Horse Pct, $Net, ...) to be, and why?
What is the easiest way to apply it to generate profits? — Tom Atwater

Considering what I've been working on for the last week, I'd have to say:

"THE BEST FEATURE" is NONE OF THE ABOVE!

Brian and Tony have the prerelease. Maybe they can give you a first impression.
Ping @ponyplayer & @Tony Kofalt

I hope to have it finished by tomorrow night.

35 fixes it and is in your DropBox.

It's working but I left in a stop.
I'll explain all of this tonight.

But Upgrade coming to get rid of the UNNECCESSARY stop.

Dang.
Upgrade in 15 minutes

Georgeontherun-- good name for a race horse. — Jim Pommier

LOL
I like it!

As I always say when new people come over...
"$500 for the bird and the cage."
They say that they're not looking for a bird.
Then I say, "How about I give you $800?"

It is not.

There is no replay.
A big bug was discovered and, while the lesson was clear, it was dwarfed by the bug.

Took me 19 hours to find and solve that bug.
But in the end I was the victor.

We had a meeting tonight where a similar but better version of the lesson was presented.

“A priori” would be precisely correct, As it is , As it is somewhat Bayesian In nature.

(Sometime dictation drives me insane.)

You guys probably want the v1.0027 upgrade.
Link to discussion

Agree with everything that ponyplayer said above. Another tactic is concentrating (at lease initially) on horses that are bet way down from their AI line. For these horses then try including additional factors such as rank and margin and grade (I've found that horses in the "A" range tend to do well). As you get better with experience you will come up with other ideas, broadening and improving your approach. — Neal Freedman

I see it the same way as both you & @ponyplayer.

What the AI Line gives us is a standard to measure the gate odds (or whenever) against.