.that is the "chance" effect — William Zayonce

Always remember what Johnny Oates said...Luck is when preparation and opportunity meet. We just have to be prepared.

Although winning methods can exist , which counter balance the effects of "random chance ", the "Holy Grail" cannot exist unless "chance" is completely eliminated. — William Zayonce

As we discussed recently, a good strategy will counter chance. While perfection will never exist, a reasonable profit is possible. I think sometimes we can be greatly rewarded for finding strange stuff.

Maybe an owner has a much better win percentage on Tuesday. Maybe that's because the owner is only able to go to the track on Tuesday. We don't have to know that the owner goes to the track on Tuesday and tells the trainer to give the horse its best shot on Tuesday, just that the owner wins on Tuesday. I know this is an extreme example, but my point is that good data usage can really pay off.

Interesting, Dave. This is a topic I don't usually discuss. I don't discuss it because I don't really get jazzed about being called a liar when I am telling the truth. lol

Back around the turn of the century (sounding like an old codger here), I was having incredible success with the horses...from a win percentage and ROI perspective. I had a decent job, so I considered what I was doing to be long-term research (it would last forever, right?). So, I was not betting much money... very little. This was back when my state still allowed ADW's. This success went on for a few years, maybe 3 or so. I won't tell the level I was at because nobody would believe me. I will say that I was making at least 60 wagers per month, minimum, so it wasn't like I was just lucky on a few wagers.

Eventually my win percentage dropped about 25% from where it was and my ROI went from unbelievable to a small loss. So, I changed my approach without thinking it through and tanked. Instead of looking for tweaks or even significant tweaks, I leaped into vertical wagers and was not successful.

I believe I have learned a lot. Horse racing is very complex. Millions of factors and that's before cheating or manipulations are considered. I now believe it is good to look at enough factors to be able to ebb and flow, but not more factors than are manageable. But, as you suggest, I have also learned that the Holy Grail is migratory.

Happy birthday, Dave! I hope you and Beth shared a special day.

. I think the good and bad breaks even out over time. — Tony Kofalt

For sure.

Poor break on East Coast Girl... was a good pick.

I projected a lot of progress for #5, East Coast Girl. — Tony Kofalt

That one looks good. The one that would concern me would be #8.

Thanks a lot, Tony! You are really doing your homework!

If I might ask, what gave you enough confidence in Basic Truth to single that one? Was it just the early strength with the class drop or were there other factors? I was not surprised he won, but I thought others might be worth including. Turned out I was wrong.

R8, 466 day layoff horse beat me. Maker is 17% on long layoffs and almost 20% first for a tag.

Gasoline did not disappoint. Impressive.

Very good call, Tony!

In R8,I do like that your 3 and 7 are first for a tag. But I see a lot of potentials in that race. Guess I will stick with the chalk, the 9.

Basic Truth in a general sense should improve on the drop. But his trainer is 0/10 on 2TS. And, I don't like his work tab... 31 day gap followed by a slow work. I think the price should be right on the 4 and the 7.

In Race 8, I like the 9, but likely the fave.

Really glad you did well. It is really impressive how well you are able to evaluate both your professional and private life. Not many people are able to do that.

As you have found, for any solid handicapper who can bankroll the P5, it is a great wager because your expertise puts you ahead of so many in the pools. Most people can get one or two in a P5 sequence, but it takes a dedicated person to catch all 5. Granted that sometimes it takes a little luck, but as Johnny Oates stated, luck is when preparation and opportunity meet.

Happy New Year and best wishes for 2023.

Happy New Year! Looking forward to the college football playoffs!

Merry Christmas and Season’s Greetings!

Life begins anew at 72...LOL. — Mickey Arnold

I guess I am the youngun. I turned 70 this week.

Yes, trainers only know their own horses. Some trainers are really sharp. Some, not so much.

Yeah, rule 1: Don't assume a trainer is smart.