So I take this to mean, the AI line is not an estimate of the true probability of a horse winning the race.What it does not mean [referring to the example race where a horse is 0.65 AI Odds] is that this horse is worth 3/5 - that you would not bet this horse at 4-1 in the gate based on this alone - it is not that kind of line.
OK, I get that.Neither is it a prediction of what the [final] odds are going to be - it's too volatile
What it is - it's what the odds on the horse should be - because the whales drive the betting, effectively it becomes the whales
Is the AI Line an estimate of what the whales are using to estimate the true probability of a horse winning the race?
That is, is it an estimate of the line the whales compare to the post time tote odds, then essentially bet the overlays in some fashion? — Tom Atwater
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