• Dave Schwartz
    371
    DET FAQ00001- What do the 62% and 88% numbers represent?
    62:2 * 88:4
    ... means (respectively) that it takes 2 horses (in the AI Line) to reach 62 and 4 horses to reach 88%.
    ...continues below the graphic.

    2024-12-27_13-04-54.jpg

    The 62 addresses the NUMBER of LOW ODDS horses.
    That is, a "normal" race will take precisely two horses to accumulate to 62% or greater of the money in the pool.
    NORMAL 62 is 2 horses.
    (i.e. most common)

    Not add up to but to reach 62%.
    Thus, if the favorite had 40% of the pool, and the 2nd choice had 25% of the pool, the race would be a 62:2.

    If the top 3 favs were: 25%, 20% and 18% the race would be a 62:3.
    _______________________________
    The 88% addresses the NUMBER of LOW + MID-PRICED horses.
    NORMAL 88 is 4 horses.
    (i.e. most common)

    The 88% typically represents the horses who are handicappable.
    That is, if one of those horses wins the race, you should be able to figure out why.
    _______________________________
    To gain a better understanding, think of the ramifications of each of those outputs.
    Imagine two handicappers talking about each race configuration below.

    62:1
    "I'm solid on the Fav."
    "Yeah, only horse who can win."
    62:2
    "I like the #1. He's the Fav."
    "I think the 2nd choice has a great chance."
    62:3+
    "Who do you like?"
    "I don't know. There are 3 really good horses."
    88:1
    (The projected Fav would have to have at least 88% of the pool.)
    "This race is like Secretariat in the Belmont Stakes."
    "Yup."
    88:2
    "I see a a solid 2-horse exacta here."
    "Heck, these two are so good they could win the trifecta by themselves."
    88:3
    "It's really a 3-horse race."
    "Yes, I wouldn't be expecting a big price."
    88:4
    "This race is very playable."
    "I agree. We've got a shot at a medium price."
    88:7+
    "I really have no idea who is going to win this 12-horse race on the turf."
    "Yeah, there are like 7 or 8 horses that might win."
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