Trainer stats

Tony Kofalt

Over the past several years access to trainer stats has become more available. I'm curious how members are using these stats. Consider the following question....
Do you utilize trainer stats in your handicapping process?
Do you use the stats at a high level (what is the overall win percent for this trainer?) or at a more detailed level (what is the win percentage when going from a sprint to a route?).
Would you make a wager based only on a positive trainer stat?
For HSH users, does HSH handle trainer stats to your satisfaction?

Here is how I use trainer stats. I do incorporate trainer stats into my handicapping. I like to view them at a detailed level that make today's race conditions. I occasionally make a bet or include a horse on a ticket based upon a positive trainer stat. The higher the price the better!!!

Please chime in and let me know how you use these stats

Jim Pommier

I pretty much use them like you. A <5% trainer, I'll leave the horse off my ticket most of the time. I may wager on a horse if the trainer has a high win percentage in an individual statistical category such as "46-90 days away" even though the trainer's overall win percentage is <10%. But I look at other factors, not just the positive trainer stat.

Conley

Simple rule for me

I like to see the stat being 20% winners in over 10 starts with an ROI of anything positive is good

A super stat would be 40% winners and over $2 ROI which I have seen a good chunk of winners winning just using that trainer stat alone while handicapping the race

It is a great way to start handicapping trainers if you are just starting or if you are wanting to switch up your methods IMO

I can provide examples if anyone is wanting to

RanchWest

Generally, I find that the best trainers just lead me to the already known to be best horses and they usually carry a low morning line. And, most of the stuff from the major data sources fuels a lot of wagers. Of course, there are exceptions.

If you can track data that is not in the hands of the public, it can be powerful. For instance, which trainers win the most at the beginning of a season and which win the most at the end of the season? That sort of thing.

RanchWest

Another set of stats that might be ripe is workouts. Is there a difference between when the horses win and lose? Does the trainer work the horses long or short? Any difference for distances or surfaces? Fast or slow? Frequency? Does the typical layoff after a race disclose anything? Does the trainer have access to a private training facility?

Dave Schwartz

Another set of stats that might be ripe is workouts. Is there a difference between when the horses win and lose? Does the trainer work the horses long or short? Any difference for distances or surfaces? Fast or slow? Frequency? Does the typical layoff after a race disclose anything? Does the trainer have access to a private training facility? — RanchWest

I love stats that nobody else has.

Personally, I like to concentrate of performance stats.
That is, things like: "How does this trainer perform with horses who..."
Rank 1st for speed rating in their last race?
(or 2nd,3rd,FrontHalf,RearHalf)

Best of Last 2 Races?
Best of Last 3 Races?
Best 2 of Last 3 Races?

RanchWest

Yes, Dave, there are many opportunities.

RanchWest

Another important aspect about a trainer is recognizing when a trainer is dropping a horse to try to unload a hopeless horse or trying to get a win. How much does the trainer drop a horse and still win? A lot of top trainers have new horses coming in that they need room to have.

Tony Kofalt

Great responses!! Ranch you always provide a lot of food for thought. Jim and Conley, thank you for the feedback as well. Some good ideas out there!!
One thing I didn't mention in my prior text is that I give more value to 'short term' trends. I can do this more effectively by limiting my play to 1 circuit. I love situations where a trainer starts to heat up or go cold. Sometimes making betting decisions based on very short term trends falls flat on its face but that's one of the risks associated with what we do.

RanchWest

Good point on short-term trends. Sometimes it fails because it just regresses to the mean. But sometimes we can accidentally stumble on something important. Maybe the trainer has a better staff. Or he put a goat in his barn. Or the better performance through chemistry kicked in. Or he got better horses from better clients. Or he discovered better feed. We don't really care why he's winning, only that he is.

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