65 more races =

88: 2-3-4
rank 1-3 = 36 82%
rank 4 = 4 9%
rank 5+ = 3 7%

88:5+
rank 1-3 = 10 48%
rank 4 = 0
rank 5+ = 11 52%

Swing for the fences ONLY when races are 88:5+??
Or in races 88:2-3-4 where a top 4 horse has a rank 1 or 2
and is high odds.

65 more races =

Races with at least 1 rank 1: 44 68%
(There can/will be multiple horses per race that have
at 1 rank 1 in their factors.)
Races with no rank 1's and at least 1 rank 2: 14 22%
Races with NO rank 1's or 2's: 7 11%

If a horse has no rank 1's or 2's, there is a 89% chance
that they will lose.

Horses may rank low, but still have a single 1 e.g.
1-7 and rank 5+ and still be able to win. Do not
overlook these horses.

This has amazing possibilities!

Can't wait for you to teach this!

The best part is that it it’s built on using AI odds instead of ML or the tote.

It's not AI.

It is done using factors from HSH and mathematical jujutsu.

I've been studying the strength of this Report in identifying low odds horses to single, as Brian demonstrated last week. I've been trying to define what the Gap in Negative Reynolds numbers should be to consider a Low Odds horse as a single. Right now it's all feel and eye test, but as an example I like to see a race with a single L that has a Neg Rey in the 4th column and a gap to the next group of horses that looks something like 24 to 300, or 8 to 180, or 40 to 168 and so on.

Yesterday I identified 29 races from the 100+ races that I've played live in past two weeks that fit that criteria. By "eye test" alone I see 15 winners in 29 races. When I eliminate 4 races that were 88:7 or 88:8 the sample improves to 15 hits in 25 races and a dollar net of $2.90. Steady diet of winners $4.00 to $7.00. with a few $3.60s and a couple $8.00 and $8.60s. When I layer in the place contenders from my existing handicapping- which is a combination of BH A+/A's and Neal H's with low object odds- those same 25 races yield 18 exacta hits that are very "gettable". Tiny sample, of course, but my gut tells me this is not a fluke. Simultaneously, I've been studying how to isolate the BALOs in similar fashion.

Haven't reached any conclusions on that BALO piece yet, but it appears to me that a recipe of Brian's HSH jujitsu AND the AI is quite powerful. I will continue tracking both singles and BALOs in search of the right recipe and am looking forward to seeing the new L/H column in action in our next meetings!

My comment refers to using the 62:x and 88:x figures to segment races and build separate handicapping and betting strategies. Those percentages are based on the AI line/probabilities.

Good work once again from Dave and Brian. Look forward to expanded explanation!

Mostly Brian.

I did a study on Brian's "RSE" object. This study uses 2025 races with 0 FTS. I used the PickMaster in HSH to see how the six factors in the RSE object performed in these races. For the first run, I also added public choice and morning line to give some perspective. Here are the results after the first run:



Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW
1 rPubCh 1-1 2,746 1,041 37.9 $1.73 2.84 1.04 367.1 997.5
174 rPSR 1-1 2,913 888 30.5 $1.61 2.29 1.00 388.1 886.8
176 rML 1-1 2,697 878 32.6 $1.64 2.44 1.01 360.3 872.8
82 rFTB2L3 1-1 3,008 777 25.8 $1.64 1.87 1.01 396.2 731.6
1625 rtSC 1-1 3,306 701 21.2 $1.56 1.60 0.99 439.0 711.6
1632 rtClass 1-1 3,600 699 19.4 $1.57 1.46 1.00 478.3 700.1
1633 rtAPV 1-1 2,728 548 20.1 $1.70 1.50 1.01 364.3 542.9


I chose PSR R1 because it had the highest number of pays (other than public choice). I used it to make a rule. When making a rule using the PickMaster, you eliminate the races in which the #1 ranked horse in PSR won. Then you run the PickMaster again to see which factor has the most pays/winners in its first rank in races in which the PSR #1 ranked horse didn't win.

After the second run, I made a rule with rtClass since it had the highest number of "Pays". Even higher than public choice!

Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW
1632 rtClass 1-1 2,616 378 14.4 $1.56 1.10 1.00 344.0 377.9

Then I made a rule with FTB2L3. FYI: Public Choice had 274 "Pays".

Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW
82 rFTB2L3 1-1 1,303 229 17.6 $1.65 1.37 1.06 167.2 216.3

Next rule:

Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW
1625 rtSC 1-1 1,262 163 12.9 $1.45 1.00 0.95 163.5 171.0

I made a final rule with rtSC.

Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW
1633 rtAPV 1-1 932 114 12.2 $1.83 0.95 1.02 120.3 111.8

Then I was left with:

Field Rank Starts Pays Pay% $Net IV PIV ExW PExW
78 rFTLR 1-1 689 91 13.2 $1.64 1.04 0.93 87.7 98.1


What's the takeaway here? In this 2,683-race sample, horses that ranked first in either of these five factors won 1,863 races (69%). That means that 31% of the time, the winner did not rank first in any of these factors.

Brian
I have the AP+PS+LR but I don't have the colored SQ columns How do I get them Looks like they can be very helpful with the contenders any help will be greatly appreciated

Brian
The emails you sent me don't open I get a page not found messaghe

At Brian's request, I studied how many winners this object got based on field size, specifically 5-6 horse fields, 7-10, and 11+. I used all races in 2024 with zero first-time starters.

Field size = 5-6: 72% of the winners ranked first in one more of the following factors: PSR, FTLR (factor 78), FTB2L3 (factor 82), tSC (1625), or tAPV (1633).

Field size = 7-10: 63% of the winners ranked first in one of more of the five factors.

Field size = 11+: 52% of the winners ranked first in one or more of the factors.

PSR should dominate those races.

PSR does get the most winners in its first rank. Here's how all of the factors did in the first run of the PickMaster in fields of 5-6 horses:

2024 5-6 horse fields (no FTS)
8,383 races

RSE 2024 Races With 7-10 Horses (no FTS)
14,928 races

RSE 2024 Races With 11+ Horses (no FTS)
1,434 races

Resurge Fellas-
when posting aqui, if you precede your research output with , your columns will align and not be squashed…easier to read, decipher and comment on…
capisce?
thanx,
gino

that went well…
so bracket code bracket…bracket being one of these [
the close bracket being this ]……
then bracket /code followed by a close bracket

hope this helps

gino has risen!

You have any tips or tricks with Reynolds numbers? Maybe any Drutherisms?

The Double Druther remains the G spot of HSH…
B2L3 x Frm….c’mon, you know where to find it!

as i continue to mourn the passing of Ron Tiller, i will remind you of a screen that i named after him that is located in the same place as The DD….
BL4 x F1….

oh hell there is a third one of these screens named after another brilliant but now departed capper,
Bobby Gumbo…(a TB4 guy and dear friend who drove DS to such distraction that Dave almost thought i was alright)…B2E x Lrc…

the eyeball sequence is DD, GUMBO, RON TILLER…
WHAT you are seeing is a quick and dirty look at Recent/Decent, Lifetime Achievement, and Most Likely Leaders….

oh double hell, here is where it is:
>Comp Icon
>Synthetic Pace tab
> buttons as described above(once for each screen)
>Notes

a recipe for success if you are a snowflake eyeball scanner….If you are trying to refi your house or
impress a jury or first date, substitute Stochastic Handicapper for the flaky eyes part…looks good on business cards also…
(almost as good as the chicarena i met at the bar who toiled at the neighborhood rubdown joint and whose card read Contextual Deep Tissue Work…)

context and nuance being like the congruence of Exacta and Quinella….(dollars and cents)…

gino
Always DeTermined

I bet you still see popups too!

Cheers
Always DeGenerated
RK

Love seeing you here, old friend.

I bet you haven't run a gun into Iraq in decades.

DS- not so much, hehehe…
Red, Emir of Fort Erie-
i still juxtapose The Comp Screen Raw with the DK All screen…a literal Popper named Flood Zone paid
$37.60 in a Gr3 race at AQU (8th) yesterday…not a theoretically preferable type, but a “do not overthink”payday horse, there for the taking….PopUps make excellent “and one” additions to both horizontal and vertical wagers…
so yes, i still see them.
all day long.
g

PickMaster-
nice work cleaning up those posts..use your cursor to bump a couple of rows and they’re perfect…my longtime philosophy has been to downgrade or ignore the products of lazy editors, poor spellers, crummy coders, stinky thinkers, anything that reeks “dumbass”….these are the people you are betting against…leave them and their stupidity bereft of your insights…
when you spot a well presented, crisply scripted, thought provoking presentation, perk up and pay attention- this is where you find the game changing nuggets that bump up your ROI…
re: your tables in general, if i may?
looking at linear output and realizing how lousy your rank of 1/$net is should send a rational degenerate off to play scratchers, slots, or sports betting…HSH has those nifty little odds ranges (dig until you find them) that will teach you when, where, and how to bet….why? remains elusive…
gino

gino,

1) Dave must have formatted the posts. I can't edit them. I don't think that you can edit a post 7-10 (?) minutes after you first posted it.

2) The factors are used in an object that some people are using in dT for contender selection, with a focus on horses that rank first in one or more of them (this is where the Reynolds numbers come in). I thought I'd study each factor in the object to see how many winners it had in its top rank (using the PickMaster and making rules). $net wasn't a consideration. That said, it would be interesting to use Systems and run different factor combinations through the "Odds Ranger" to see where the bad bets and/or profitable bets are. Unfortunately, I've forgotten how to use Systems so that idea is out.

DT

Picker:
gotcha.
no clue about Objects, not my jam.
back in the day i used to find it interesting to run a filter for a certain track (and certainly T/S/D variations) and then run a simple one factor rank of one system against it….remedial education at its
best!! when you find that cRtg 1 or PSR 1 whilst winning thirty % or better in general win 80% at odds < 9/5 or whatever, it can serve as a serious nudge towards getting on Bandwagon El Favorito or continuing your career as a suicide bettor….
the merits of many handicapping programs are eternally debatable, but i have always thought that HSH
provided serious educational opportunities for peeps trying to transition from handicapping to betting….
an open mind and a decent bankroll required, needless to say…
keep on choogling.
gino

You really need to come in from the cold and catch up with the times.

@PickMaster or Brian the @ponyplayer can bring you up to speed in like an hour.

i’m just fine, thank you

da Proof:
PARX R10
cRtg1= 4,5,11
those three ran first, second, and 4th…dime soop $558, #4 paid $27.40 for the win…
just sayin’, as they say…
gino