HEADQUARTERS QUICK START STORE CONTACT US

Comments

  • Making an oddsline
    EP SP AP
    1 3 2 = 6
    2 4 3 = 9
    3 1 4 = 8
    4 5 5 = 14     — Tom

    Maybe add Reynolds numbers?

    Best 2 multiplied together
    Best 3 multiplied together

    Thus
    1 3 2 = 2 6
    2 4 3 = 6 24
    3 1 4 = 3 12
    4 5 5 = 20 100
  • Making an oddsline
    Another approach is to assign Fibonacci numbers to the rankings. — RanchWest
    My personal favorite.
    ___________________
    I want to make an odds line based on lower-is-better numbers,
    3
    7
    11
    15
    18
    Any suggestions how to turn these into probabilities?     — Tom

    Are these similar to Sheet Numbers, by chance?
    If so, I have a schema for that.
    ___________________
    Rank 1 = 5
    Rank 2 = 4
    etc. to
    Rank 5 =1     — Tom

    I'd call this one, FUZZY handicapping.

    I'd weight it as follows:
    5 = 100 (Excellent)
    4 = 62 (Good)
    3 = 38 (Average)
    2 = 24 (Fair)
    1 = 14 (Poor)

    I'd also add a 7 & 9.)
    7 = 162 (Think Off-the-scale horse.)
    9 = 262 (Secretariat entered in a $20k claimer.)

    Then I'd normalize the whole thing to 100%.
  • Making an oddsline
    Say lowest would be 7 and highest would be 35.

    I think you guys may have already given me the answer/     — Tom

    What would that answer look like?
  • Making an oddsline
    If you do not want it weighted, also convert to percentages. — RanchWest

    Yes, like 100 - score.

    Or 20, or whatever.

    That's why I asked for the scale.
  • Making an oddsline
    Can you offer us a scale for the range of numbers?
    From what to what?
  • Fair win odds theory
    Seems a paradox though, no? If I bet both, I'm guaranteed one loss and have effectively cut my paying odds to 3/1 and 7/1. So now I have two underlays instead of one overlay. — Dustin Korth

    Who you bet does not change who is or isn't an overlay.
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    I probably missed something up there, but that sums it up well! I hope this helps Dave — Conley

    It does help.
    Thank you.


    If I was going to recommend ideas for a handicapping show I would use Talking Horses to build my foundation. — Tony Kofalt

    Thank you for that!

    Or, the jockey had his head surgically removed from his butt on Monday! :) — Tom

    LOL - Do they still call them "Pinheads?"
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    ↪William Zayonce
    Thank you
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    He does ,however, sometimes offer interesting insights that players might have overlooked. — William Zayonce

    Can you give me an example of interesting insights?
  • What Makes a Good Handicapping Show?
    ↪Tom
    ↪RanchWest


    Could you explain what you mean by "Inside Information?"

    So, what you guys are calling "inside information" - could that be SPECIAL information instead?

    When I think of inside info, I think of stuff like "I heard the trainer say that ______," or "The jockey on the favorite is sleeping with the 2nd choice's trainer."
  • HSH 9.1 (Pre-Release Announcement)
    I can only get the winner I get 7 picks. :)
    I saw nothing positive. ???     — Tom

    Exactly.
    Yet, it was amazingly obvious to Ken.
  • HSH 9.1 (Pre-Release Announcement)
    Just keep in mind that a big part of what is getting Dave to winners is his process. He recently helped me with my process and it was a game changer. He helped me to see that I was taking a random approach, hopping aimlessly from one area to another. Once I began following a process, my ability to pick winners improved significantly.[/quote]

    Thrilled to hear that this has worked out so well for you.     — RanchWest
  • Ranch is doing okay!
    "Dude, do you work out?"

    Seriously, kudos to you for the follow thru.
    Not everyone does.
  • Fair win odds theory
    In today's whale climate, you must have confidence in your odds line because the tote odds can drastically change. — RanchWest

    Should be WILL CHANGE.
  • Ranch is doing okay!
    Awesome!
  • HSH 9.1 (Pre-Release Announcement)
    It means there is no charge for the upgrade.

    You still need to purchase downloads.
  • Pace pressure nuances
    Any trhought? — Tom

    Lots of them - but not quite ready to go public yet.

    I'm in the final stages of a very different way to look at pace.

    Multiple models - and a way to see which model to use in each race.

    Running style is huge - because it predicts how RELIABLE the pace scenario really is.

    A strong hint:
    You have a model that points to an early horse winning, yet there are no early horses in the race. Now what?
  • Ranch is doing okay!
    Lasix has me in shape. I had a race with Bolt scheduled, but he found out I cheated on the lane assignments and he backed out. Gutless. — RanchWest

    Well, I see that your terrible sense of humor is still in place. LOL
  • Ranch is doing okay!
    ↪RanchWest


    That's wonderful!

    When will you be ready to race again?

    Will you need a workout or two first or is it straight back to the track?
  • BRIS FYI
    I'll see what I can find from HDW.
Home » Dave Schwartz