Comments

  • Result Charts as part of handicapping process


    That is just what I am looking for.

    So, can you hook trainer, jockey and horse notes to a chart as well?

    And, if you look at a trainer, can you see notes for trainer+jockey?

    Frankly, I'm trying to figure out how to do that. LOL
  • Place / Show Wagering
    My point is try to develop a methodology that 'feels' good to you. Then don't be too quick to abandon it.Tony Kofalt

    Wonderful advice. :clap: :up:
    It has to fit your style.

    IMHO, one of the reasons you've been able to support yourself as a true professional for the almost 3 decades that I've known you is that you always wear a reality hat.
  • Result Charts as part of handicapping process
    To do this, I simply click on the 'Notes' button located on the right side of the line beginning with standard chart. A small window will open allowing me to enter 'Note' for each horse in the race as well as a note for the entire race (which will be added to the PP's of each starter.) I could also choose to enter a note for the entire card which will display in the PP's of each starter.Tony Kofalt

    Thank you.

    Could you take a screen shot of what the notes mechanism actually looks like?

    That's my primary area of interest.
  • Place / Show Wagering
    When you Dutch 2 (or more) horses, the goal is to make the same return no matter which horse wins.

    In my experience, because of late odds changes - which shift the ultimate winner's odds down - the end result is too much on the loser and too little on the winner.
  • Place / Show Wagering
    Hope that makes sense I couldn't find the link but found it nowConley

    Does make sense.
    Do you find that you are consistently betting the horses in the correct proportions or are you betting less on the winners than you should?
  • Place / Show Wagering
    WPS
    Really like a horse with a high% of hitting: Win Bet
    Like a horse but need back up in case it does not win: Win/Place/Show
    10-1+ Longshot: Win/Place
    Like 2 horses to win here: Dutch Win Bets
    Like 3 horses to win here: Dutch Win Bets
    Conley

    What odds do you use to Dutch?
  • Place / Show Wagering


    My belief would be that you need to find a BALO.
    (Bet Against Low Odds horse)

    Not to bet against but to actually bet!

    I think that if you search for BALO and LEVERAGE POINT you will find some explanations of how and why.

    Short version: BALOs win way LESS often than they should but run 2nd way MORE often than they should.
  • Result Charts as part of handicapping process
    I'm interested to see how result charts play into your handicapping process, if at all. I use DRF Formulator result charts for the following information.
    How did starters run in subsequent races.
    Did the race invert? For example, did all of the speed tire?
    What kind of Beyers did runners post in subsequent races?
    Did any of todays rivals run against a horse last time?
    Review the PP's of the winner in the last race,
    How are you utilizing result charts today? Thanks for the feedback
    Tony Kofalt

    Can you possibly show (or describe) how you keep notes for charts?

    I'm working on the notes section of the new software and would love to see a few examples of how you do it.
  • Podcast featuring Mike Maloney
    so I have access to their premium products.Tony Kofalt

    What sort of products do they offer?
  • Void claims
    @Tom

    Good post.
    The fact that you posted it caused me to actually read it this time.
    :smile:
  • Looking for suggestions regarding early speed and race setup
    @RanchWest has done some work in this area and I've got to say it has plenty of merit.

    I know Ranch has shared it before but perhaps he can reprise that a bit.
  • Why a Winning System/Method Has to be Rebuilt From Scratch Periodically
    We've reached the point of diminishing returns here.

    We see the wagering world far differently.
  • Why a Winning System/Method Has to be Rebuilt From Scratch Periodically
    I contend that the profitable ones are.

    If you have an edge, you *** ARE *** the casino.
  • Why a Winning System/Method Has to be Rebuilt From Scratch Periodically
    So, you don't believe that card counters can win at black jack?
  • Why a Winning System/Method Has to be Rebuilt From Scratch Periodically
    Although winning methods can exist , which counter balance the effects of "random chance ", the "Holy Grail" cannot exist unless "chance" is completely eliminated.William Zayonce

    Casinos seem to do reasonably well despite the fact that "chance" exists.
  • Why a Winning System/Method Has to be Rebuilt From Scratch Periodically
    I have also learned that the Holy Grail is migratory.RanchWest

    That quote is worth the price of admission.

    I generally refer to it as "fragile" but perhaps "migratory" is better because it does seem to come and go. And dare I add, "... never to return."
  • What a Winning Player Looks Like
    Indeed.
    What he is doing is pretty fantastic.

    Did you notice that his average mutuel is $3.57?
  • Why a Winning System/Method Has to be Rebuilt From Scratch Periodically
    Thought provoking Dave. I seem to recall you describing 'Whales' going through a similar process each year.Tony Kofalt

    Yes.
    I understand that they begin working on it during the summer so that they're prepared to roll it out in January.

    That's why things seem to change from year to year.

    A famous full-time player I use to speak with often, said that for 4 straight years his ROI went down. When he saw it go negative 4 months in a row, he pulled the plug on his racing career.

    He was a mini-whale himself - wagering just shy of $40m per year.
    BTW, he was the only fully automated operation I ever heard of.
  • Why a Winning System/Method Has to be Rebuilt From Scratch Periodically
    Interesting.. we'll need to discover "Which " components to use and "How" to combine them, perhaps tossing in some "negative enhancement" features ?William Zayonce

    That would be the idea.