@No Moore

Did you play TUP yesterday?

However, it's not directly the distance that is the reason for variable length on speed figures, it's the variable velocity caused by the distance. — Dustin Korth

Really an excellent answer. :clap: :clap:

I avoided wading into this thread because I KNEW someone would say it.

Wow Dave- you achieved a $net of $.89 on these favs. To me that is amazing!! Great job — Tony Kofalt

That changed last year.

A lot changed in 2021.

BTW, the changes can be very abrupt.
They're driven by the fact that the whales retool every year and bring out their new stuff in January.

I would prefer you didn't publish results that cannot be validated (especially for a small sample). Otherwise, it's just like the babble on Fox or the after the fact analysts on CNBC. I won't even mention the other fake news network. Sorry! — Biniak

You can prefer what ever you want, but I doubt you will ever get your preferences fulfilled.

If all the conversation on a forum is only for VALIDATED RESULTS then the bar is just too high and there will be zero new ideas put forth.

If I publish anything, it would be based upon SOME STUDY, but it can never be enough to call it rigorous, otherwise, the cost will be so high as to be unaffordable.

@JRand,
You CAN message me, of course.

But you CAN'T get the answer in return. :grin:

I'd like to get on that list as well. — JRand

Sorry, but no.

Read this thread and you will understand.

How do you determine if a horse is BET AGAINST? — Rich Val

WOW!
You're actually here!
Great to hear from you!

Folks, this is the guy who taught me the 7 Days in Utopia approach!

ANSWER: Not quite ready to go public with that, but I will DM you.

Is there anything you can share about your bet/not bet decision process? — RanchWest

Not willing at this time.
I will likely turn it into a workshop for my HSH guys.

It's like 90 seconds in HSH and 15 minutes with paper & pencil.

No.
You must turn it into at least 2 (i.e. 0 & 1) systems.

Another alternative is...
Because System 0 must be the first one alphabetically, change the order of the system/object name.
or...
Find some other system/object - even one that does almost nothing or has no use - and slip it in front.

Then...
You can push all the other systems down.

THUS...
What USE TO BE system 0 is now system 1 and you have complete control over it.

You won't be sorry, I forgot just how many pages of data it contains, but if I'm not mistaken there is over 150 pages. — Jim Parker

Actually, there are over 2,400 pages!

Dave, in the materials, the tables can get them with all the ranked pace factors. — Bill T

Forgive me but I don't know what that means.

Click "Change."

It is really very simple but needs more functionality.
Ironically, in the decade since I built this, nobody has ever asked how to use it so I didn't expand it.

• Think of "Categories" as "Groups" or "Lists."
• By default, these Categories are by Factor Type.
• But you can edit the Categories any way you want.
• Example: You could create Categories according to Type of Race or Filter Name.
• Factors can have multiple Categories, so it an exist in multiple Categories.

You can Save & Load the current Categories with the appropriate buttons.


"Run Style" is Category #5.

Recommendation
In our software we actually do not try to show the TOTE ODDS.
We want to show the EXACT number, such as 2.52 or 2.99.

It works far better for predicting low odds horses.

Also, we like to show POOL PERCENTS.

I knew one pro player who did.
Claimed that it had great value.

He also tracked what he called "cause scratches."
Those were scratches where the horse was entered in another race within the next 6 days.

He said those were far more valuable.

FWIW, in our software we use these factors to predict the odds.

I actually did nothing but sweep the file for viruses and host it on our site.

Steven did all the work.

This is really good work!

Do you recall how Huey Mahl did this thing he called The Length Variant? This connects me to the next idea, and all of it connects back to YOUR WORK.

When I was doing work for some AUS a couple of years ago, I found some of their ideas quite intriguing. One was the idea of expressing "How They Ran" in terms of Odds & Beaten Lengths.

Thus, if you look at each odds range, and come up with the average lengths behind, one could say that a horse who ran (say) 2.5 lengths behind ran like he was (say) 5/2.

Your work is similar but expressed as a win percentage (I assume).

This is a really goods idea.

Is this the average of the best three (3) in the race? Seems like I heard this in a workshop but I don't remember it exactly. — Steven

It is how ever you choose to look at it, but better would be:

Best-of-Last-2 in sprints
Best-2-of-Last-3 in Routes.

Say Oaklawn's par time for 6 Furlongs Claiming $10k for Filly/mare statebreds is 1:10 flat and your adjustments (example, not the REAL #ers) are 3.5 for f/m and 0.5 for statebreds

Do I add the adjustments to the Par Time or the Actual Time I am computing to get a figure for?
And is it better to use class specific times or the $10k times? — Conley

If you want to know what the PAR FOR THE RACE would be, then:

1. Start with the CLASS PAR for the level (i.e. the par number like 103.4 or whatever)
2. Subtract the Female adj.
3. Subtract the statebred adjustment.
(Don't forget the N2L adjustment if applicable)
This number becomes PAR NUMBER for the race.

However, as I explained in Percentages & Probabilities, a more powerful approach is to look at the mix of horses in the race and build a STRENGTH RATING for the actual race and use that.

This way, the level of the race is determined by the actual HORSES rather than the WRITTEN CONDITIONS of the race.