I haven't found that thread. Can you direct me to it?

In 1982 I wrote a horse racing fractional times program with manual input and sold a few copies. A friend kept asking me what to do with it. My answer way back then… I don’t know.

I agree about bias. Much is explainable. Much of the rest is coincidence. One notable exception was the old Aqueduct Inner Dirt... inside was for real.

For trainers, fertile for looks is how a trainer performs early meet, mid-meet, late meet. And, where the horse came in from because that might be a change of assistant trainers.

There are a lot of possible trainer and jockey studies, but sometimes you have to think outside the box.

I am not an expert on Sartin, but here's what I use (by rank of the pace line):

Early Pace
Late Pace
Total Energy
Turn Time
Hidden fraction
FW
FX

To correct myself, though, I use this as a significant number, but I don't think I include this in my odds line, though I certainly couldn't disagree with anyone who does.

I use the ranks of the 7 primary Sartin factors.

I take my totals and raise them to a power of 1.2 to 1.6 because the low odds horses will usually be overbet and this takes that into account.

But, in the end, I tend to generally not put a lot of credence in the specific odds. I just want to know which horses should be most likely to make my contenders list. Not all low odds horses are contenders, though.

Another approach is to assign Fibonacci numbers to the rankings.

I watched a show this morning and it finally struck me... what I should have noted long ago. There's no structure. None. To get anything out of the show, you have to listen carefully to every word. Even then, it is difficult.

If you do not want it weighted, also convert to percentages.

Yes, I would invert to the range.

It all depends on your confidence level.

I once saw a horse going off at 5/1 when the HORSE should have been 1/2 at most. An announcement was made that the JOCKEY had never won a race in over 500 mounts and that was the reason for the 5/1 odds. I bet the horse with CONFIDENCE. Why? Because the horse was breaking from the outside post and all the jock had to do was stay out of trouble and the outside post would afford her that opportunity. At the top of the stretch, she had the horse on a slight lead. Twice she tried to whip the horse and both times she pulled the reins and the horse wanted to go sideways. She learned her lesson, got up on the horse's neck and the horse looked like he was shot out of a cannon and won by easy daylight. The horse was never in danger of a troubled trip.

I'd say inside information is info not typically found in 10 race PP's.

Kendrick Carmouche recently changed agents and immediately went on a winning tear.

It could be something odd, such as a horse has been winning since they put a goat in his barn.

Or, the jockey flew in for this one mount.

Or, the jock has not finished in the money since being thrown from his mount 10 days ago.

I agree with Tom. Inside information.

My opinion may not be popular, but Serling can't pick his nose. But he does sometimes offer some interesting information. And, he/s the contrarian that people tune in to hear what he's going to say.

That's a tough one. Potential chaos. I can only get Spanikopita on a deep dive. Bullet work followed by a troubled trip and the closer is possible on the possible chaos.

Definitely a good pick by Dave.

Do you mean at Parx, 10/5/22, race 5?

That's impressive!

Just keep in mind that a big part of what is getting Dave to winners is his process. He recently helped me with my process and it was a game changer. He helped me to see that I was taking a random approach, hopping aimlessly from one area to another. Once I began following a process, my ability to pick winners improved significantly.

I am sure Dave's software and his ability to use it are very significant, but also don't underestimate his ability to utilize a process.

It's like a second lease on life. I hope to make the most of it. One good thing about the hospital is that it has taught me a lot about looking out for myself. I can tell you that nobody turns the main light on in my room after midnight anymore!

My max is now 1500 feet, more than a 1/4 mile. And I'm on Lasix. Look out! Ha!

Still on schedule for release 10/3, tomorrow. Sure looking forward to getting out and being able to walk in the sunshine, eat tamales and spend more time with my wife.

The horse doesn't know what his odds are. If either looks like it has a legit shot at winning, it is a good bet. If torn between the two, betting both is an option.

In today's whale climate, you must have confidence in your odds line because the tote odds can drastically change.

I am now walking as much as 1200 feet at a time. They’re talking about releasing me on 10/3. I am very much looking forward to getting out of here.