Race 11, Flat Top Box $2 win — Tony Kofalt

I would have to pass. I think Beer Run looks tough as the chalk in a large field. Cigarette Boat has good works and is 1st on turf, but from a limited look his turf pedigree seems light.

So far it has been a rather boring day. A horse coming off a place in the Wood returned to the maiden ranks and strolled at low odds. Lots of scratches. Hopefully there will be more interesting races later. The track was upgraded to fast for R3.

In R10, Charisse closed for 4th.

R7, #9 led from the gate but faded at 4/1. #1 closed for the win.

#9, Lanarite, R3, got up for second at 10/1. #8 did lead and fade as I suggested she might. Another stout closer, #3, took the win at 7/1. Exacta paid $61.25 on a buck.

In R7, I prefer #9, Condiment Girl
In R10, I agree that Charisse has a shot. I have her on my line at 10.6/1. That would be a nice price.

In R3, it's a tough race with several leaving the maiden ranks. I think one of those may be able to repeat. I look for #9 to close well to win. Look for early speed and fade on #8.

Thanks, Tony! I appreciate your response.

My own thought is the same regarding looking for a better pace scenario and my sniffing out of such situations has improved a lot in recent years.

I must admit that I am still far below where I want to be in evaluating bad favorites. I have improved in this regard, but I feel I should have this alarm go off in my head more often.

Congrats, Conley!

Tony, if I might ask, what is your most common reason for including specific long shots on your tickets? Form? Pace? Trainer? Pedigree? Works? All button? WAG? Something else?

The best in the country make their way to Saratoga. After Saratoga is over, many head to Gulfstream. Then Saratoga again. How is that Aqueduct North?

I understand your position, Tony. I look forward to interacting with you.

I look forward to the Saratoga meet. I would be interested in participating in a contest or just a pick 'em with commentary. It's such a good meet.

Quick Grid has a count of races at or above par minus 5. It is on the Speed Deep Dive grid. It is a comparison to BRIS pars, not raw times. Quick Grid uses BRIS data files (single file or Multicaps).

Everyone, do you pass on wet tracks?

4) multiple foreign horses in races (excludes Breeders Cup) — Conley

Do you define "foreign'' as having only foreign races showing or would it include any horse with any foreign races showing? For example, if a horse has one North America race showing and the rest are foreign, would you consider it a "foreign" horse?

Nice call, Tony.

I was surprised he went off at 9/1.

You could get the wagering evaluation from the odds and also next out winners from the company line, but I assume you are wanting to compare based on your own favorite factors.

I'd say Tommy Gun has a chance, but I don't think you'll get anywhere near 10/1. Probably around 7/2.

I like Ocean's Reserve, but he'll be at a short price.