Well post mortem? I had the Derby winner, this was one of the stranger races I have seen and I will pipe in just a so called chaos/conspiracy theorem or theory as this race unfolded. First of all, from a handicapping standpoint, I just alot of different things in my handicapping in terms of math and what happens between Morning Line, what happens in Contention and finally the magical buzz work, Value or BALO or True Odds. My designed speed figures that I have refined had 3 deep closers or Sustained or Stretch runners. Low and behold guess who they were----Renegade # 1, Ocelli # 2, and a close 3rd. "Golden Tempo".

Lets look at the 3 jockeys.............Irad Ortiz Jr. contracted or obligated to ride for the Repole Stable. J. Ortiz Jr. the younger brother.. from all accounts... two of the nicest men in the sport and connected rather well since their venture to New York from their fathers jockey school in Puerto Rico. So.. quickly, the two boys go to New York 11-13 years ago.. dad calls old friend Angel Cordero and says hook up my boys. Guess what trainer who is starting to grow and starting to make a name for himself. "Chad Brown" Great connection.... now guess who was one of Chads assistants... Cherie DeVaux. guess who J. Ortiz is married to Taylor Rice: lol. guess who her Aunt is.................only maybe the best overall New York trainer of all time: Linda Rice. oh.. guess who rode Ocelli........T. Gaffalione........... guess who are 3 best friends............ I. Ortiz. Jr. J. Ortiz Jr. T. Gafflione.. Now my picks were pretty simple.. I was in on Further Ado, Emerging Market and you guessed it Golden Tempo.. and my system continues to give me more and more faith... the best lowest variants relative to speed, Performance and deviation was top 3 Renegade and Golden Tempo. So... if you trip handicap.. go back and watch the Louisana Derby and the Risen Star.. this horse was lazy.. but watch his stretch run .. up the rail saving ground.. was closing like crazy.. and watch the reigns... he held the horse up.. and only finished a length out. By the way.. the stretch run.. did anybody think that an inquiry could have been called in the stretch???????? I have watched the stretch run several times.. the pace was pretty hot.. the stretch was crowded as Danon took the lead but somehow the two Cox horses came together.. Commandment and Further Ado were grinding and guess who else who I had in my exactors and exotic plays was on the inside of them was Chief Wallabee. Ocelli. first wiped out Commandment and Further Ado.. and I believe. Renegade right behind Ocelli.. wiped out Incredibolt who was moving which in turn pushed Chief Wallabee inside with no where to run. and on the outside with clear paths were Renegade and Golden Tempo. .. Now.. racing luck... bad trips.... racing luck.. I do not know but maybe I am blind.. but I saw two horses cut horses off in the stretch.. and in traffic.. now, Maximum Security spooked coming into the stretch and took out War of Will, Country House and was disqualified.. DO NOT EVER TELL ME.. THAT SOMETHING WAS GOING ON THERE...

If you read the Bloodhorse article, it sounds to me that they will completely off the air at the end of 2027. There stock dropped (Fan Duel has dropped 64%) seems somebody knew something. Britney Eurton knew it was coming and they knew they would have to pay off Todd Scrupp and his out the door package. The whole wide packages of all gambling is too saturated and overdone now, It is the sign of the high tech online world, The cable.satellite world is dyeing why do you think CBS, Paramount, etc are all scrambling to buy up as many markets as they can. With the advancement of AI, the world is in huge trouble and horse racing is is in trouble because there are too many people that are being left in the past. I will clearly miss it whatever people think, the information was information and they are knowledgeable people. Their is just not enough market share unless you just want to burn money and as we all know, all walks of life keep asking for more and more and people are running out of options.

I have many columns i.e. Speed, Class Ratings, Pace, Energy, but I believe in terms of +- figures in terms of predictable improvement or decline along with Jockey/Trainer angles that combine a Performance Index Par that falls between the absolute best and the par what horses are gunning towards in terms of their improvement as each race comes. It is not difficult to see how the public thinks as a whole as the Morning Line Maker has the influence in terms of the pool. Then connections and public knowledge of the industry. So determining and using a whack of AI and factors are not required to to go completely that deep in terms what a better or any so-called perception of what a syndicate or syndicates intentions are. In terms of the enjoyment of handicapping ... I believe I was not trying to waste your time but more or less just a fundamental question regarding using a par time compared to the actual par of the race that is about to run when making ratings. I do not need to confuse the handicapping process... Statistics show if you want value over a certain odds, certain races will hit the higher odd in terms of the amount of races that are played every year or every meet. A handicapper is suppose to have many factors or objects available to their disposal... Its only how and when they decide to pull the trigger or not. I was just asking a simple question, very sorry to have wasted your time

any chance of posting the link and let me try again.

He had a site where you could read and buy his stuff but I am confused why I can not get into the site from my browsers.

its hard, Google sheets uses Java Script

thanks for the response Dave. I debug and nothing happens

No I meant do you split it by meet, or the calendar year

Trust me, I already knew that. I use tournaments or the cheap one as just a way to stay focused on picking winners. What has become quite interesting particularly with Horsetourneys and the general state of everything in price going up, especially for those who say.. are broke or who can not afford the rise in the cost of feeders etc. It seems to me that when you look at the amount of entries and the fact that you can buy up to three entries which to me, I have done 2 but to me at times. I really do not like the more than one entry rule period but I am a purist. I think this tourney garners the most interest in the last year or so since all the prices that the tournaments cost to play on the site. I really use to enjoy the 18 or 20 dollar early quick feeders into a nice priced tournament in the afternoon, depending on entries and the cut off. But the feeders have become difficult and the the whole idea of 350 usd to be part of the "The Group" but I understand the site has cost but it is too bad, tourneys like World Series has died, my home the track has changed the whole concept of getting together in one room except for the NHC has died. P.S. love to hear opinions.

I see, I understand the profitability angle. I was wondering how your software handled the profitability based on the many factors of handicapping but I have found one of the hardest parts of the game and the understanding of the improvement or decline particulary as many trainers today take long lay offs and you see good size dips or good size improvements in their given speed figure. I understand now why men like Pizzolla and others use to recommend leaving maiden special weight races alone or would recommend passing certain races. In my studies, during 2024 I have more or less keeping eyes and stats on tracks and class in terms of races that pull off an odds of 10-1. I guess I would ask Dave, how does DeTerminator in terms of your thousand of AI and handicapping angles. Maybe it would be easier to ask if it shows more of a percentage of your Chaos races, are they garnered to cheaper claiming, or special weights ? More or less curious and hope you are well as we have not spoke in awhile.

Chuck from Toronto

Not a subscriber but an interested party as I have had discussions with Dave in the past and we have had personal discussions on his design of DeTerminator etc. I would be interested just in terms of Speed Ratings in your win % and pricing in terms of Improvement or regression in Speed numbers for Classes with less than 7-8 starts and we would all assume that this would show numbers for 2 Yr Olds or horses not making their debuts until 3 or 4. I am just interested in seeing how to compare drops in speed or improvements in their speed. Up in Class or Drops. does not matter just trying to see average drops or jumps after trainers/owners make their decisions on where to fit their horses as they drop and rise in their classes. Does this make sense?

Could you send me an email Dave on the start cost and the monthly.

Chuck

I am pretty sure someone or provider are keyboarding me particularly when I am in Google Sheets. i.e. knowing my keystrokes. etc. i.e. what I am typing, my email.. etc. Just a gut feeling.. Happened in the past. So.. I would like to be able to do my own online stuff besides an incognito window feeling safer about it.

Chuck.. Thanks.. P.S. this is one of the reasons why I got off social media.. i.e. X..etc. Facebook. And it is too bad because I have considered The Podcast..i.e./You Tube avenue of daily or racedays of discussing racing, handicapping, different venues.. etc. etc. as a way of trying to make a living.

However, like so many businesses.. unless you have a new approach or idea..everything becomes copy cat and the only way you win..is be interested, build following and advertising.

I am not building class pars.. I am building track pars... And I understand your ratings. Dave. They are in depth and broken down very wisely. Right now, with a way a track is playing.. With the way I am doing my Track Pars, I attach a bias based on what winning horse went off.. you can judge a race, a speed, a type of running style based on the condition. I.E. In using past results charts of a current meet.. You can determine if tracks are playing a certain way obviously based on training habits etc. I am not talking betting here or gambling.. "I am talking handicapping" For Instance.. looking at race last Sunday.. playing. 3 Race approach.. ie. betting 3 races and one tourney... I looked up my last year speed par. for Maiden Sp. Wt. (Ny. Breds) My Par.. and the amount of subsuquent races based on the condition had A. E-Type Runner dominated the winning, not necessarily the winning times but the winning style of the horse and the race. Case in point. Although, points of Call had Race # 7 Belmont. Big A. Sunday. June. 30. the running line shows.....1st C. 2nd by 1/2. 2nd. Call 2nd.again by. but overtakes at 3/4 pole and goes all the way to the wire. Now.. a computer generated system.. may look at this programmed and may consider this a Sustained or Jim Cramers PS. I did.. not based if the programmer has programmed his handicapping object or factor to consider his running style based on the class and the speed.. So.. when I bet this race... I caught this horse at 30-1..along with the exactor at 1 dollar because I live on fixed budget still and based on jockey/trainer combo and the understanding of how trainers think and how angles are calculated and how they are designed. Speed. or Front Run Style 1st Out.. or off the lay off. followed by a race to continue the process of building a young horse's stamina. Black Magic/Valuecapper had the bias of based on Late or Closing Bias based on Odds. However, after I did my handicapping.. I change the bias to Early.. not doing it before I handicap.. or out of the box... like fact checking.. guess who the Early horse was when I changed the bias to Early? And I do not lie about this stuff ..there is no point.. it is not about ego... it just the point..You can take a million statistical anomalies and etc..in a gambling/slash betting.. in terms of what your principles are and have sucess.. The fact is that card cost me 1.00 american plus my original purchase, my knowledge, my learning.. and years of my playing. I enjoy listening you to Dave.. I helped show what was going on in my computer.. etc. The fact is you are great teacher.. and I give you credit... for your coding ............etc.

I see.. I am kind of doing that... I have taken every class i.e. Mcl. from 10k to 100k. and seperated boys and girls and distances. So I have taken All Maidens Sp. Wts. same process. all the way to G1. and once have the pars. base the speed par on that class. so I take the Mcl. 10k. and rate each level to the top of the class. Or.. are you saying take every time at one distance and rate it according from Mcl. 10 all the way to G1. They are very comparable in terms of each class at times.. except. I see fillies/fm a tad slower at times. So. if my par time for MCL 10k. for 6F for whatever age is 1:10.00 example. as the best time than the par for the class/speed is set at 100. and any time above that you would deduct from the 100 rating?

Ok.. maybe.. I think misunderstood something from an old post back on paceadvantage. When I handicap at times particularly as a tool, I will go through my recent track final results and compare how horses are running during the meet at certain conditions. (Note I already know that you brilliant enough Dave... to code this into your HSH and The Determinator which I have been watching your videos etc and find very interesting although I would need learning tutorial. Before I ask my question, have you sold out on your copies yet... if so.. very happy for you. If not, only takes time.

My question is for example.. Churchill Spring Meet. ran 15 races at Mcl levels from 10k to 100k at 6F.
My results show a breakdown of 3 Winners as an "Early" 2 Winners as "EP" and 4 Winners as Pressers and 6 Winners as Sustained. Remember, I am in the process like you in your early years without the benefit of running code but was trying to get an idea on how I can take at certain distances or certain levels and incorporate this into a Speed Type Reliability Index as you have.. In other words, I do think I understand your SRI index in that how consistent the speed plays at certain tracks or changes.. (I could be wrong.) I have done this type of winning style of running for a number of tracks that I use in terms of the circuits. I.e Tampa to Mommouth shipping-Big A.. or Gulfstream to New York-etc. I guess how would I go about processing this style year to year... Any ideas? Hope you say hi again.

Ok, Dave..its Chuck. So when a horse challenges for the lead. I am presuming that would be the actual point of call where he is in 2nd place or when he takes the lead that your "Object" or "Factor when determing a running style in Pace is when you would consider that horse in a race to be an E, EP, P, S. I will give you examples, so which I know this is mundane perhaps to you but as you know, I consider Brisnet in my humble opinon, I take issue with at times and boy when you look at results charts and go back to a horses running style they have put together in terms of their version Dr. Qurin. What the horse does in a race compares to his past running style are like "Night and Day"

So. I have a race in front of me, whereby (again, I am talking the winner of the race, not any horses in their finishing order) whereby he is 3rd (1/4 pole-1.5 BL's) 3rd (1/2 pole-1.5 BL's) 3rd (3/4 pole-2.5 BL's). Stretch call... moves into 2nd ( 2 BL's) Finish line wins by 2.5. Now Cramer would consider this Pressure Sustained... Brohammer would call this Sustained.. Qurin Sustained... in your objects or factors when you designed your function for this..what does your handicaping sucess spit that out in terms of R/S.? Hope you are great, hope we can zoom again when you have time just to talk etc.

Yes.. I say without looking at video. if at the 1st call.. running line is 2nd by a head, he is still not in the lead...I use it as EP and this is me defining it in terms of past results of the winner. I am finding with this system... it is a horse wins wire to wire or challenges...is marked at the first call...All I can see is horses win in most situations are either E or the challenge or Sustained.. i.e. even though they are within 1-2 lengths at the stretch call, they still technically by the definition sustained horses.. So.. what I see with my pars I am seeing New York, Woodbine, Gulfstream, MTH. with the exception of Churchill, that in a 9 race card... etc.. is both surfices, more sustained bids than that 1st call on the lead.

Sorry Cramer calls it a Presser Sustained at the stretch call

No worries.. when you have time.. I never got a chance myself as I forgot to sign up about the pricing etc. I just wanted to see what it looks like as the icon on the laptop to opening it i.e. and then the screen.. When you have time etc.