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  • Modeling
    Took at stab at doing a little modeling on the races I handicapped yesterday using the Pace 5-Column approach. Not sure if I'm doing this right.
    There were 34 races. 14 of the 34 races were won by a horse that did not qualify under the Pace 5-Column approach. However, 10 out of these 14 winners were Ranked 1 or 2 using factor tTrk - (Trainer: Today's Track).
    Next, looked at a handful of races from last week. 14 winners that did not qualify under the Pace 5-Column approach. 5 out of the 14 winners were Ranked 1 or 2 using factor tTrk. Not quite as good as yesterday.
    Again, not sure if I'm doing this right or if these results have any significance.     — Jim Pommier

    Now I have a little time to respond properly.

    What you'll notice with this non-DET approach is that the L horses do not dominate.

    There must be 2 models - L's & H's.

    When you look at the L winners you'll get a drastically different look than when you look at the H winners.

    That point might have been a little overlooked last night.

    I think Saturday we'll do 2 sessions:
    8:30 to 9:30 will be a shorter version of last night and then 10:30 to 12noon will be to actually work on modeling with the TWO spreadsheets.
  • Modeling
    I watched all the videos. Good stuff! Unfortunately, I couldn't make the meeting. — Dio

    We'll get another going - probably Saturday.
    We'll also work on the spreadsheet.

    I can put the spreadsheet in your DropBox if you like.
  • Modeling
    If you attended last night's CHALK TALK conversation, I've put the 5-Column Spreadsheet in your DropBox.

    For those who didn't watch the videos, please do so and post here.
    We'll do another meeting as soon as we get a few responses.

    Meanwhile, I will attempt to meet with any of the people below in a meeting late today.

    ping: @ponyplayer,@Jim Pommier,@Ira Yorn,@Gillycapper,@Greg Gentzler,@Jeff Capper
  • Modeling
    Took at stab at doing a little modeling on the races I handicapped yesterday using the Pace 5-Column approach. Not sure if I'm doing this right.
    There were 34 races. 14 of the 34 races were won by a horse that did not qualify under the Pace 5-Column approach. However, 10 out of these 14 winners were Ranked 1 or 2 using factor tTrk - (Trainer: Today's Track).
    Next, looked at a handful of races from last week. 14 winners that did not qualify under the Pace 5-Column approach. 5 out of the 14 winners were Ranked 1 or 2 using factor tTrk. Not quite as good as yesterday.
    Again, not sure if I'm doing this right or if these results have any significance.     — Jim Pommier
    (Ping @Gillycapper)

    First order of biz for me to do today is to add some robustness to the Model spreadsheet and post it up for you guys. I'll try to have it up by 11am.
    [Edit] Looks more like noon.
  • Announcement: Video Series Is Available Now!
    Excellent videos Dave!! If you had told me that PSR Rank 1 horses that are NOT 1st or 2nd Public Choices only win at 12.2%-- I would not have believed you. The same with FTBL2 and FTB2L3.
    Also, "Horses bet down to the Favorite are better bets than horses that were projected to be the Favorite to begin with".     — Jim Pommier

    Most important was the SIMPLE STRATEGY that I built for the non-DET users - from DET.

    In fact, I think we should do a MEETING to discuss all of this.
    Going to check with @ponyplayer
  • Announcement: Video Series Is Available Now!
    Content should be available now.
    Please reply here if you can see it.
  • Hoping I could get an answer or concrete answer
    ↪Chuck


    What are you actually looking for?
  • Hoping I could get an answer or concrete answer
    You're talking about HDW?

    I'll look for an updated link.
  • Hoping I could get an answer or concrete answer
    We get data every day from them.
  • pcr, pcr^, pcrH
    You’re working hard at this stuff.

    Let me know if you need some time.
  • pcr, pcr^, pcrH
    Yes
    And, when a column contains a minus sign, the purpose is a reminder that LOW is still better.
  • pcr, pcr^, pcrH
    They are different formulaic approaches to using PSR, CPW, RTG.

    The formulas really don't matter, do they?
  • I didn't win at Saratoga in 2025
    I think there were two very important takeaways:

    1. No matter which approach we used, we had almost every race in our top 3, and usually top 2 horses.
    That included a couple of $20+ horses and a whole bunch of exactas.

    2. The quote you made: "I have never clicked any of the buttons you clicked tonight."

    Saturday everyone will have the version Tony saw tonight.
  • I didn't win at Saratoga in 2025
    Sorry that you are struggling.

    Perhaps we should do a one-on-one and you can show me what you're doing.

    Perhaps I can offer ideas for improvement.
  • Why Vegas is Losing Customers
    It is a great place to live.
  • Why Vegas is Losing Customers
    Reno is hardly a gambling town any more.
    But they have jacked the prices on everything.
    LOL
  • Morning Line Disaster
    t's Belterra park!! what do you expect. somebody came along and placed a 500 win bet. :rofl: I remember one night I loved a horse at CT and the odds were 9/1. I bet 800 — Gillycapper

    Great story.

    Had a business partner about 30 years ago who went to a racetrack in Romania.

    He and his wife had a dining room table, looking over the track.

    He asked the server why all the people kept coming by staring at him. The waiter said that they wanted to get a look at the rich American who was making every horse the favorite.

    He was betting $25 a race.
  • How to bet "The Neal"
    Is it possible to determine the odds based on this information and would it be worthwhile?[/quote]

    Great question.
    The answer is "YES" and "NO."

    Seriously ask the question at tonight's meeting.
    It's right on topic with the direction.     — Rick Irvin
  • Why Vegas is Losing Customers
    Wow.
    Now a 10% takeout instead of 5.26.
  • Why Vegas is Losing Customers
    Wow is right!
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