HQ COURSES STORE NEW POSTS ABOUT

  • Post Key Data error
    Error 3 means cannot unzip.
    Redownload and reimport.
  • Post Key Data error
    See how it says that the zip file does not exist?
    Well, it doesn't exist because it was never imported.


    I know... Everyone says, "I know I did."
    100% of the time when I meet, the file simply does not exist.
  • Saratoga around the corner
    Anybody who wishes to join the panel should send me a private message for the zoom link.
  • Saratoga around the corner


    Well, we make a panel of 2. LOL
  • Saratoga around the corner
    I'd love to play live with you guys but just don't play enough races at one track.

    Would you guys have any interest in an open mic panel?
  • Saratoga around the corner

    What a great idea.
  • deTERMINATOR: Confidence Level vs. Score Problem


    Beth leaves next Sunday for a trip to grandkids-land for a week.

    Give me a call on my cell and we'll make a plan.
  • deTERMINATOR: Confidence Level vs. Score Problem
    Also, and this is kind of a strange idea...

    Do you know the paper, Attention is all you need? Well the way they keep words from inflating themselves to the detriment of the whole, is they require each matrix row to sum to 1. Words are still typically more attuned to themselves than the rest of the words in the array/sentence, but they are attentive enough to the words around them that there is meaning. Have you tried a mathematical approach in that manner with your genetic style algorithms that are limiting their guesses to "game" the rules? I wonder if there is a linear algebraic solution to your issue.
    Daniel Boals

    I'm sorry, but I do not understand what you mean.

    Perhaps we should put one of those lunches at the Atlantis real soon.

    BTW, we ate at the Chinese restaurant next to the buffet on Friday night. While the menu is very limited, the food was phenomenal.
  • deTERMINATOR: Confidence Level vs. Score Problem
    I take it you are using your own neural network in DET? I know you have experience with neural networks going back years, and when you started this project, there really weren't any open LLMs like we have today. I am no expert, but it seems like the neural nets in DeepSeek and Alibaba's Qwen are both pretty good and they have resources to train that you probably can't get without a billion dollar investment. Have you thought about using one of their models to check your DET? The new Qwen 3.6 29b is supposed to be really good. It is a dense model and it seems like what your are doing is more of a MoE, but then they do have Qwen 3.6 35b which is a MoE style logic under the hood.Daniel Boals

    First, I stopped using Neural Nets about 1994. They're not very good at "predictive AI." That is, they're not very good at accepting they can't get everything right.

    (I write extremely advanced Genetic Algorithms.)

    Second, when you upload racing data to an LLM, it absolutely DOES NOT use a Neural Network on it. Instead, it uses statistical methods.

    Think of an LLM as a TRAINED tool. The LLM itself is not a NN. It is the OUTPUT of a NN.

    Have you thought about using one of their models to check your DET?
    Not for a second. LOL

    ...but it seems like the neural nets in DeepSeek and Alibaba's Qwen are both pretty good and they have resources to train that you probably can't get without a billion dollar investment.

    The billion dollar investment could certainly have been used in other directions - but the goal was LANGUAGE, which is far different than making any kind of "investment prediction."
  • Thistledown today
    Yes, races #10 and #11 from last year. GPX only had 9 races today. They usually then card a few races from I believe Argentina. Looks like maybe they thought there were 11 races today, but the last two (2) were from Argentina, not GPX.Jim Pommier

    Just heard from Ryan at HDW.
    He says that they repaired today's GP file to remove the wrong races.
  • Thistledown today
    FYI. Also, downloaded data files for GPX R10 and R11 from last year. I advised HDW.Jim Pommier

    Are you saying that they added 2 races from last year?
  • Thistledown today
    As always, Dave reached out immediately and we isolated the issue. Don't know if the guy ever sleeps, but his attention to his users is unmatched. Much appreciated!Jeff Capper

    LOL
    Thank you.

    It was like 8:30 when I saw the post.

    Listen, guys... when you have a TRAFFIC STOPPER, do what Jeff did - make a quick post.
    Many of you have my cell# - text me at any hour of the day or night - you will NEVER disturb me because I use DO NOT DISTURB when I'm off the air.

    But at least I will see it instantly when I am back on air.

    This morning I was actually up at 5:50am or so. I don't suddenly check forum messages, but I ABSOLUTELY DO check phone messages and email (I get email notifications of private messages.)

    As an example, someone blow up their upgrade install yesterday. They sent me a long string of inbox messages. I saw them at 5am and told him to message me so we could zoom.

    He's not yet read the message.
  • Thistledown today
    From Ryan at HDW
    ____________________
    Ryan Smith
    9:00 AM (4 minutes ago)
    to me

    Hey Dave,

    We have just resolved that issue within the last 15 minutes. There was also an incorrect CD card from 5/3/2025 posted for a few hours yesterday evening that we resolved.

    Ryan
  • Thistledown today
    Here's a look at Jeff Capper's screen.
    Clearly it was an HDW error - which is now fixed - because that file shows as downloaded TODAY.

    cijginmo8g51xo9w.png
  • Thistledown today
    Perhaps they've corrected the download because this is what I find for today:

    0atteb35tzkew1v5.png
  • Kentucky Derby


    Yes, I saw it.

    Funny thing was that I thought it was the 18.
  • Kentucky Derby
    Social media said 14 1519 R the hot long shots.
  • Kentucky Derby
    In fairness, an AI engine - even if it trained on every KY Derby in the last 20 years would have... wait for it... twenty races.

    That's such a narrow sample with crazy variances. It would basically create a backfit - which would be pretty much worthless.

    Truth be told, this is one of the rare times when an LLM using social media opinions has the potential of shining.

    Must ask the right questions for what you're searching for - based upon the Wisdom of the Crowd concept.

    For example...
    1. If you're interested in high hit rate, use a question like, "Who are the 3 most likely winners?"

    2. If you're interested in crazy high exacta payoffs you could structure your question like, "Who are the potential big-priced horses that have a chance today?"


    Please note that I put all of about 4 minutes thought into this.

    Dave
  • 3. Rank Bias Explained (18:51)
    Speed Ratings are changing.

    In our current approach, there are several recent changes in the way things are done that have changed “what’s important.”

    We’re seeing a trend away from “best of last 2” and “best 2of last 3” towards “best 2 of last 4.”

    In other words, RECENT RACES are LESS IMPORTANT.