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Making lots of new discoveries!It means that I win 74% of my sessions with an average return of 7/5.
The actual average payoff is about 6/5.
But, because the losses are almost always less than $300, the actual average risk is less than $300 per session, resulting in a net gain in return.
IOW, even though I begin with $300, on average the average loss is about 20% less.
As an example, I recently lost a session where I had already "scraped" $236. In addition, when I lost the last bet, I was at a down turn leaving me with $29. Since that was not enough to make another bet, that $29 was added to the "scraped" amount.
In other words, my net loss for the session was only $35.
Below are the actual bets.
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Sess# Race BET RETURN RESULT GAME SCRAPE SESSION 201 7/26/24 GP 01 30 39.00 9 +9 LRL02 201 7/26/24 LRL02 30 33.00 3 +12 SAR01 201 7/26/24 SAR01 30 62.00 32 +44 44 +44 ___________________________________________________________________________ GP 02 202 7/26/24 GP 02 30 20.00 -10 -10 WO 02 202 7/26/24 WO 02 40 29.00 -11 -21 SAR02 202 7/26/24 SAR02 52 67.00 15 -6 LRL04 202 7/26/24 LRL04 36 103.00 67 +61 61 +105 ___________________________________________________________________________ MTH01 203 7/26/24 MTH01 30 54.00 24 +24 LRL05 203 7/26/24 LRL05 30 -30 -6 WO 04 203 7/26/24 WO 04 30 -30 -36 LRL06 203 7/26/24 LRL06 29 -29 -65 MTH03 203 7/26/24 MTH03 30 41.00 11 -54 GP 05 203 7/26/24 GP 05 71 112.00 41 -13 WO 05 203 7/26/24 WO 05 42 35.00 -7 -20 MTH04 203 7/26/24 MTH04 50 44.00 -6 -26 BTP07 203 7/26/24 BTP07 56 52.00 -4 -30 GP 06 203 7/26/24 GP 06 60 54.00 -6 -36 MTH05 203 7/26/24 MTH05 66 -66 -102 SAR06 203 7/26/24 SAR06 32 30.00 -2 -104 ========= 203 8/07/24 BTP01 60 33.00 -27 -131 203 8/07/24 TDN01 63 50.00 -13 -144 203 8/07/24 DEL02 80 119.00 39 -105 203 8/07/24 TDN02 135 222.00 87 -18 203 8/07/24 TDN03 47 129.00 82 +64 64 +169 ___________________________________________________________________________ 204 8/07/24 DEL04 30 53.00 23 204 8/07/24 BTP04 30 -30 -7 204 8/07/24 SAR03 30 -30 -37 204 8/07/24 BTP05 30 134.00 104 +67 67 +236 ___________________________________________________________________________ 205 8/07/24 SAR04 30 -30 -30 205 8/07/24 TDN06 30 -30 -60 205 8/07/24 FL 06 30 -30 -90 205 8/07/24 DEL07 30 -30 -120 205 8/07/24 BTP07 30 102.00 72 -48 205 8/07/24 SAR06 78 -78 -126 205 8/07/24 BTP08 39 49.00 10 -116 ========== 205 8/08/24 IND01 79 123.00 44 -72 205 8/08/24 DEL05 102 -102 -174 205 8/08/24 SAR04 51 35.00 -16 -190 205 8/08/24 BTP06 51 33.00 -18 -208 205 8/08/24 IND03 63 -63 -271 NET -35 ___________________________________________________________________________
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A Worthwhile Post From 2006.
First, Rook was brilliant.
But the backstory is incomplete.
Let me present it by the numbers.
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1. Rook did not handicap WITHIN HSH.
He handicapped using a CSV export.
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2. In HSH v2, the composites were ALL based upon RANKS.
That is, the composite ratings themselves were ACTUALLY COMPUTED after the raw version of the the numbers were turned into ranks.
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3. This created a problem for Rook.
The problem was that every time a horse scratched, every horse that was below the scratched horse in any factor used in a composite CHANGED forcing a re-export of the data for the race.
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4. Because Rook's software did not import just a single race, he had to reimport the entire card!
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5. During HSH v2's time, Rook lobbied very hard for that to change.
I resisted, but he ultimately unionized the HSH forum until he had everyone screaming for Rook to get his way.
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6. Ironically, the change was a MASSIVE IMPROVEMENT.
Seriously, never had any single upgrade worth so much. LOL
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7. But his results weakened.
We eventually figured out why.
It turned out that APV had been SORTING UPSIDE DOWN for years!
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8. Rook said that I broke his results.
He wanted me to put the bug back.
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9. I explained that coding & data integrity just would not allow that.
Besides, it was his idea. LOL
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10. Seems reversing APV was getting him some whopper Trifectas & Supers.
I offered to build him another version that sorted in reverse but he said that it had to have the same number or it messed up all his system.
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11. Again he tried to unionize...
... but the ridiculousness of the request - to ignore data integrity - was just not well-received.
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12. Rook started other threads on PA, all in the same vein.
Now, Rook was a fair man, and always started the thread by saying how well he was doing with HSH, and sharing his NET WIN for the previous year.
(if you do some other advanced searches on PA, I am sure you can find them.)
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13. As an aside, every time he made an angry post bashing HSH...
... I sold about 15-20 copies of HSHs that month.
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14. When he said that he'd made over...
... $400,000 in each of the previous 2 years (as I recall), that number about doubled.
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15. Idiot that I was... (you guys will like this one)
... after one particularly ugly post, I THANKED HIM for making my cash register ring.
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16. He never made another post.
Yes, I was THAT stupid.
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EPILOGUE
Years later, we spoke again.
As I recall, he had banked enough and was retired.
It was also a time when the whales were really starting to make the game really difficult.
TO GIVE CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE...
...as I said earlier, Rook was a brilliant man who did an amazing job of leveraging my work into a REAL BUSINESS.
Under the hood there are some very strong mathematical concepts that he gave me. They did not go into HSH publicly until he was done playing. -
Report update AP+PS+LR
You really need to come in from the cold and catch up with the times.
@PickMaster or Brian the @ponyplayer can bring you up to speed in like an hour. -
Luan Machado eases before the line"Was it intentional?" is the $64,000 question.
One is a mistake and the other is criminal. -
New Update Friday 02/28 WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Trying to close out this upgrade and, while it is very usable, it just isn't quite ready for Prime Time.
Been at it for hours.
Apparently not the CODE WARRIOR I was 20 years ago.
Anyway, Brian's got the newest, and if he says it's "READY ENOUGH,", I'll release it today.
Otherwise, it will have to be tomorrow early.
What I am stuck on is the data columns not quite refreshing the way they should be and the new data does not make it to the Results.
Stay tuned.
Signed,
The Tired Guy
(Who isn't prepared to do 60-hr weeks any more.) -
New Update Friday 02/28 WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Ponyplayer, will you guys have a public video for this? — Mark
Mark,
@ponyplayer will send you the invite.
Dave -
Dave's "Key to the Mint Strategy" from Wed 02-12 meetingSpecial note:
This was written a LONG TIME AGO.
Back when you could actually use the tote board. - I'd guess sometime in the 1990s.
Ironically, just today - and I do mean TODAY, February 14, 2025 - I recorded the deTERMINATOR version of this.
@ponyplayer had no idea I was recording such a video. -
Have Any Interesting Research Ideas?DET removes the issue of segmentation of races.
Essentially, after DET has done its work, the races have been normalized to reflect that.
This is a very difficult thing for players to adjust to because they think there is more to do.
The role of the player is different. -
Have Any Interesting Research Ideas?Does this make sense? — Chuck
You have described many potential subsets, leading to many permutations of data.
1. Regression or progression in speed ratings - i.e. form cycle
2. Considering...
age
number of starts
class changes
trainers class management
This is a very complex study.
Respectfully, because speed ratings are so far down on the MAKE-A-DIFFERENCE-IN-PROFITABILITY LIST, I doubt that anything of value would be found.
Today's racing environment is just far different and BEING COMPETITIVE TODAY demands a far different way of looking at things. -
How Favorites Performed In 2024I don't see KD in the track list - is that intentional? — Tom Atwater
KD is a "circuit 0" track. That is, it is a very small or non-standard track.
Most people would not want to include circ0 because it would skew the data. -
How Favorites Performed In 2024@PickMaster
I'm confused.
Ah... Favorites.
Also, look at your posts. (Edit one)
I wrapped them in "code" tags. -
4 Types of RacesI don't agree with his betting strategies-- "tossing the 2nd and 3rd choices", "eliminate the 2nd and 3rd choices from the place slot" and "make a win bet on the 3rd choice". Seems very rigid. Maybe it's simply suggestions. — Jim Pommier
And I agree with your position as well. -
No wonder I can't win at SunlandI used to do well at that track but in the recent few years it fell off my list.
Besides, there are just so many races to choose from in my 3 hours + one race.
Dave Schwartz
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