There is no replay.
A big bug was discovered and, while the lesson was clear, it was dwarfed by the bug.

Took me 19 hours to find and solve that bug.
But in the end I was the victor.

We had a meeting tonight where a similar but better version of the lesson was presented.

“A priori” would be precisely correct, As it is , As it is somewhat Bayesian In nature.

(Sometime dictation drives me insane.)

You guys probably want the v1.0027 upgrade.
Link to discussion

Agree with everything that ponyplayer said above. Another tactic is concentrating (at lease initially) on horses that are bet way down from their AI line. For these horses then try including additional factors such as rank and margin and grade (I've found that horses in the "A" range tend to do well). As you get better with experience you will come up with other ideas, broadening and improving your approach. — Neal Freedman

I see it the same way as both you & @ponyplayer.

What the AI Line gives us is a standard to measure the gate odds (or whenever) against.

Is the AI Line an estimate of what the whales are using to estimate the true probability of a horse winning the race?
That is, is it an estimate of the line the whales compare to the post time tote odds, then essentially bet the overlays in some fashion? — Tom Atwater

The AI Line is literally how the entire public should bet the horses based upon past history.

Imagine you have a horse who IS 1/5 on the tote board.
How did he get that way?

Most of the time, if you were to look at the key betting factors you would find that this horse was ranked 1st for just about everything.

In other words, he is likely the best horse in the race.
_____________
The roots of the AI Line trace back to a column in HSH IV Tables - The "BV" column - which stands for "Betting Value." Simply put, that is an IV-type representation of the expected percent of pool that should be wagered on each horse.

Dave, what plans do you have for deTerminator documentation in general? — Tom Atwater

That could be a long answer but, in my newly made commitment to brevity, I will say that it begins with a new approach. Still videos, but very short and mostly based upon screenshots.

The onboarding process is really the key - and the team will help with that greatly.

Thank you.
We seem to be doing pretty well.

That's because you did not tell me who you are beyond "Bob, a customer."

I need the workout reports — bob

Please send me a private message detailing who you are so I can send them via email.

Welcome back!

The SLTs are coming.
They do quite a bit.
Also, take a look at the object known as O2X.

This considers the last 3 races relative to the horses 10-race top.
The 1st and 2nd races are far more important than the 3rd.

The Power Ratings will be more powerful than Speed Ratings because speed ratings are highly impacted by the pace of race.

224 Days - Days Since Last Race and 225 DaysWR - Days Since Last Race or WO. If the days are different, factor 225 days is less than factor 224, then you know the horse had a workout. 227 Work14 - (last 14 days) then gives you the WO rating if the WO was in the last 14 days. There's also 228 Work30 If you want to check workouts further out from today's race. — Jim Pommier

This is BRILLIANT!
I completely forgot the logic that was possible with this!

It will be easy to add this factor!

Thank you!

The data you're looking will be found in "Easy" data.

Doubt this will make the Gold release.
Just so much more important stuff first.

I usually just handicap the race... — Jim Pommier

Me, too.

No.
We're a long way from 200.

Here's the original thread:
https://www.community.horsestreet.com/discussion/comment/6173

Thanks, guys. The strategy as outlined by ponyplayer accurately captures the spirit and essence of the strategy. A couple of quick fine points: — Neal Freedman

This is fantastic!
You've captured the very essence of the source of The Situational Advantage.

__________________
This thread is too important to not share with the world.

This is an excellent strategy.

Well done, @Neal Freedman & @ponyplayer!

Selections are for BEFORE the race picks.
No, this is great!

For instance, I have noticed that if a horse may have a rank of 2 and a margin of 2 on only 1 of the pace lines it is most likely a marginal BALO at best. If it doesn't rank at all on several lines, it is a strong BALO. I am beginning to think that we need a tool to calibrate the AI so that we may make it stronger or at least make our elimination processes stronger. — Dave R

Great idea.
I will add this to the tracking process.

I like the idea of BALO1 & BALO2, based upon what Mags they were eliminated on.