Let's catch up after this weekend.
I'd really like to run some ideas past you - especially on the note taking.

While big scores are really nice, the every day bread and butter is winners that look to be sound wagers. — RanchWest

I think the above quote is really the game changer.
It is a subtle difference, but do you see how the UNSPOKEN FOCUS has shifted from price=value to value=value no matter the price?

This is how one becomes a long-term winner as opposed to being a Slot Machine Horse Player.
(i.e. one who depends upon luck to have a winning day and almost never has a winning month.)

And it is amazing how fast the transition occurs: Usually just takes A FEW DAYS.

Experience does help. But I'd have to say that my experience with Thorograph played a big part. Especially the concepts around form cycles — Tony Kofalt

Tell us as much as you can, please, about that process.
Or links to TGraph docs.

BTW, HSH does have built in Rag-style numbers.
Do you like those?

Is that something you are doing through HSH? Is there some automation involved in the form cycle weights or is that pretty much subjective? — RanchWest

HSH supports that - even via the systems.

(Tony hasn't used HSH for a long time.)

Gentlemen, THIS is what I want YOU GUYS to share with our handicapping world.

@RanchWest

You are awesome, man!

Love that you are making real VALUE selections.

I look forward to you teaching what you know real soon.

Love the story.
I've heard similar before.
Had an old friend/client (early '90s) Jeff G. who had Robbie Davis' book for a while. The stories I got were really amazing.

I think it would even better if broken down by surface/distance as well. — Tom

Oh, we'll do WAY MORE than that.

I'm going to re-do our trainer stats as well, and those are already mind-blowing.

We have the usual stuff like---


But we've also got PERFORMANCE STATS.


But I want to re-do them ad add a couple hundred more factors.

It's in the Bris Ultimate PPs.
As Richie Migliore says about early speed as a weapon,"They have to go where I've already been." — Tom

Excellent.
A feature we need in The Studio.

I asked Rich about this (above), but I should have asked you. I am a confused on the need to Sort by. Can you explain a little or give an example? Thanks for sharing! — Biniak

Easy.
You have 10 pacelines for a horse.
There are 3 issues:
1. Which pacelines are QUALIFIED?
2. How many do we want to SELECT?
3. How should we ORDER them to determine which to select?

1. Is similar surface, similar distance, lengths behind/ahead.
2. Is a determination that should change depending upon the confidence we have in the selection.

3. Is what you asked about.
Imagine you have 10 pacelines.
Step 1 slims that down to (say) 3 pacelines.
If it slimmed it down to just one, you would need a sort, right?

But with 3 pacelines, you need some way to ORDER them.
Sort by:
most recent
closest distance
fastest final time

This particular sort will really only require "Most Recent" because there will never be a tie (unless the horse raced twice in one day. - It HAS happened.)

But some of the other conditions require more sorts.

THE POINT
You will sort and take the TOP LINE (or top 2, 3 or whatever).

Hope this explains it.

My mistake.
I forgot that I changed the rules about 5 years ago.
Had to go look at the code.

It appears that I changed it to 1st or 2nd, or less than 1.00 lengths.

Good catch.

Okay, I'm lost. I don't understand how the two example horses earned a G for the races marked. There's something I don't understand here. — RanchWest

Because they won those races.
Or, they finished so close that it counts as a win.

More specifically, #6 won her 5th race back which was:

• Same surface as today.
• Similar distance as today.
• Same or higher class as today.

What are you not understanding about that?

I'm trying to follow along. Should that be 2 lengths? And maybe 3 in a route? — RanchWest

No. It is exactly as I said:

G=Won on today's surface, at today's approximate distance, at today's class or higher.
(Losing by a neck or less counts as a win.) — Dave Schwartz

G=Finish within a neck or a win.

I know that I talked to a trainer at Lone Star who told me that if a jockey didn't try to go to the front end on his horses, they wouldn't be riding for him long. — RanchWest

@Tony Kofalt

I am under the impression that most trainers tell the jockey how to ride the horse and, if the jockey ignores his wishes, he doesn't get mounts.

Is that true?

BTW, are you still a jockey agent?

If I may, I'm going to play a little devil's advocate here for the sake of discussion and say when selecting a single representative paceline to predict today's outcome, This may give you the runner's "ability level"...but would seem to ignore the condition and form cycle pattern of the runner when that particular representative paceline was earned...which could have no relationship to the current condition and form cycle pattern...which greatly affects today's "ability level." Thanks guys. — Dustin Korth

Absolutely right!
"How good is the horse?" and "Is the horse in form?" are certainly two different questions.

The other day, I posted this as a reply in the Live & Breath Handicapping Facebook group when someone was looking for ways to figure out a complicated race conditions. I suggested this.



Here's a screenshot I just took of a concept I built back in 2001.
The yellow box represents the last 10 races for each horse.
_________
G=Won on today's surface, at today's approximate distance, at today's class or higher.
(Losing by a neck or less counts as a win.)
_________
B=Lost today's surface, at today's approximate distance, at today's class or lower.
_________
The Dots are races at the wrong surface, wrong distance, too high a class, or off-track.
IOW, the horse had a valid excuse.
_________
As you can see, very few horses actually are entered in a race where they actually fit.
BTW, the LINE column indicates the horse's odds in the most recent race where they got a G.
The theory is that if the horse won at what he's trying to do today, then he should be an overlay at that price or higher.

Of course, this worked out.

I write handicapping stuff, right? LOL
_________

I look forward to watching this.

Thank you.

Yes, we use that one as well.
Based upon last 365 days

What other cool ideas do you have?

I'm against them. :lol:

Actually working on getting that into the new software.

Have not had good jockey stuff since my DOS days.

Most powerful is Photo Finish Win Pct.

Preparing for screenshots next week as I am cleaning up quite a few windows.